23 replies to this topic

[sin city]

Bob & John going off at 8:1



should I spend my winnings now, or did I just give some money away?

[helmet52]

I'm definitely a degenerate gambler. I like Bob and John. Very solid horse. Then again, the Derby is a total crapshoot. At the minimum, you've got yourself a solid contender.

[Killface]

I don't know about degenerate...I do gamble...who am I crappin', yeah kinda degenerate...I wouldn't sell my house or anything, but I do enjoy a trip the track (opening day for Arlington is THIS FRIDAY...good time)... Anyway, about your horse, got a good shot, certainly not an also-ran. You have a better shot than most.

[without_opinion]

i'm fairly certain i have a gambling problem to some extent. it's good that i don't make a lot of money.

[biggie mcsmalls]

I gamble with Barkley on the weekends. My losses are in the millions.

[MattW]

That Barkley interview was awesome. That guy's got a problem and he knows it. He even bargained that he'll probably get help in 5 years, but for now he's having fun. Though later he admitted he'd like gambling to be more about fun that about winning and losing money. I probably have a gambling problem, though I know when to quit and I never gamble with anything I can't afford. I also justify by cutting down on drinking and partying expenses. I just love action a little too much. I don't do the ponies because I don't know the first thing about what to look for in a good horse/jockey. I might as well bet on cricket. Though going to Arlington once every other summer is a lot of fun.

[yancy]

[nobodies]

I love to gamble, but never loved playing the horses. I went to an OTB one afternoon with a friend and it sucked. I don't think I won a single race, and the odds were never good. I'm sure it's much more fun actually going to the track, but I'd rather sit around a black jack table (or on occasion carribean stud poker, which is the crack of table games).

[elcorazon]

I love to gamble, but never loved playing the horses. I went to an OTB one afternoon with a friend and it sucked. I don't think I won a single race, and the odds were never good.

ridiculous. Not saying you have to like the track or horseracing, but if you don't like it because 1) you didn't win; and 2) "the odds were never good" - wtf does that even mean? You bet longshots, you bet favorites, I have no clue. When betting horses, you get relatively fair odds actually based on the betters' perceptions of who will win. In black jack or other gambling you get predetermined odds based on your mathematical chance of winning (less the casino's take). I don't see how one is better than the other.

I really think the odds are the greatest thing about horse betting. Rather than playing a hand of blackjack where you can win however much you bet, you can get short odds by betting favorites (or betting to place or show) or get significantly bigger odds by playing longshots or exotics. Much more intricate and interesting than blackjack in my opinion.

My guess is you just aren't interested in learning the game (which can be imposing, admittedly) - people generally prefer quick action to something requiring too much mental capacity, hence the popularity of the mindnumbing slot machines.

Haven't studied the Derby yet, but I'm rooting for "Showing Up".

[Slackmo]

yancy, your signature indicates a willingness to play on the 13th, or to host?

[yancy]

yancy, your signature indicates a willingness to play on the 13th, or to host?

I could be arm-twisted into cleaning up the batcave and hosting.

[held]

I heard the favorite isn't likely to win cause he's on the outside and no horse has pulled that off since 82. Possible longshot is Keyed Entry. My mother-in-law loves the ponies... gonna take her one of these years.

[MattW]

I love to gamble, but never loved playing the horses. I went to an OTB one afternoon with a friend and it sucked. I don't think I won a single race, and the odds were never good.

ridiculous. Not saying you have to like the track or horseracing, but if you don't like it because 1) you didn't win; and 2) "the odds were never good" - wtf does that even mean? You bet longshots, you bet favorites, I have no clue. When betting horses, you get relatively fair odds actually based on the betters' perceptions of who will win. In black jack or other gambling you get predetermined odds based on your mathematical chance of winning (less the casino's take). I don't see how one is better than the other.

I really think the odds are the greatest thing about horse betting. Rather than playing a hand of blackjack where you can win however much you bet, you can get short odds by betting favorites (or betting to place or show) or get significantly bigger odds by playing longshots or exotics. Much more intricate and interesting than blackjack in my opinion.

My guess is you just aren't interested in learning the game (which can be imposing, admittedly) - people generally prefer quick action to something requiring too much mental capacity, hence the popularity of the mindnumbing slot machines.

Haven't studied the Derby yet, but I'm rooting for "Showing Up".

What he's saying is that if you consistently play Blackjack, your odds are around 49.5 each hand. If you play with a 6 or 8 deck shoe, there's a greater momentum factor that allows you to bet bigger while the cards are in your favor and bet minimums while they are out of favor. In the long run, if the pressing strategy you have is limiting your risk, making consistently correct decisions, and you're doubling down when the situation is favorable, you do have good odds of coming out positive. The same can be said of good poker players who know how to calculate their pot odds based on the percentage of their hand winning the pot (still working on this, just learned the 4x2 rule a week ago). Luck is always a factor, but in the long run the mathematical odds are usually all that matter.

With horse racing, the only way it's worth your while is if you take a long shot or an 8-1 shot and they pull out a miracle. That creates a lucky rush for the short term is great if you hit it, but in the end if you're consistently betting 8-1 shots, you'll lose 7 times out of 8 and therefore your odds are terrible. Granted, odds are big but that doesn't make them good.

The only strategy I've seen that comes close to good odds is finding a race with a heavy favorite, then doing small exactas with that horse and 3 or 4 other strong horses to get a big payout.

[elcorazon]

I love to gamble, but never loved playing the horses. I went to an OTB one afternoon with a friend and it sucked. I don't think I won a single race, and the odds were never good.

ridiculous. Not saying you have to like the track or horseracing, but if you don't like it because 1) you didn't win; and 2) "the odds were never good" - wtf does that even mean? You bet longshots, you bet favorites, I have no clue. When betting horses, you get relatively fair odds actually based on the betters' perceptions of who will win. In black jack or other gambling you get predetermined odds based on your mathematical chance of winning (less the casino's take). I don't see how one is better than the other.

I really think the odds are the greatest thing about horse betting. Rather than playing a hand of blackjack where you can win however much you bet, you can get short odds by betting favorites (or betting to place or show) or get significantly bigger odds by playing longshots or exotics. Much more intricate and interesting than blackjack in my opinion.

My guess is you just aren't interested in learning the game (which can be imposing, admittedly) - people generally prefer quick action to something requiring too much mental capacity, hence the popularity of the mindnumbing slot machines.

Haven't studied the Derby yet, but I'm rooting for "Showing Up".

What he's saying is that if you consistently play Blackjack, your odds are around 49.5 each hand. If you play with a 6 or 8 deck shoe, there's a greater momentum factor that allows you to bet bigger while the cards are in your favor and bet minimums while they are out of favor. In the long run, if the pressing strategy you have is limiting your risk, making consistently correct decisions, and you're doubling down when the situation is favorable, you do have good odds of coming out positive. The same can be said of good poker players who know how to calculate their pot odds based on the percentage of their hand winning the pot (still working on this, just learned the 4x2 rule a week ago). Luck is always a factor, but in the long run the mathematical odds are usually all that matter.

With horse racing, the only way it's worth your while is if you take a long shot or an 8-1 shot and they pull out a miracle. That creates a lucky rush for the short term is great if you hit it, but in the end if you're consistently betting 8-1 shots, you'll lose 7 times out of 8 and therefore your odds are terrible. Granted, odds are big but that doesn't make them good.

The only strategy I've seen that comes close to good odds is finding a race with a heavy favorite, then doing small exactas with that horse and 3 or 4 other strong horses to get a big payout.

all you are saying is you don't understand the ins and outs of horse racing enough to know how to make money betting (which is true for most bettors including me by the way). But that you've studied blackjack enough to feel that you have some sort of slight advantage (which most players haven't by the way).

While some of what you say about horse racing is somewhat accurate, your analysis is awfully simplistic. Truthfully, if you could win a straight bet on an 8-1 shot, 1 out of 9 times, you would break even - so I'm not sure why you would conclude that "your odds are terrible".

The fun of betting the horses is doing your own analysis and finding the horse(s) you feel have a better chance to win than their odds would indicate. You're betting against the other fans, not against the house with horse racing. While the fans do a pretty good job of identifying the level of contention of the horses in the race, the fun of the game is to try and outhandicap the others; find the jewel in the rough - whether it's the 30-1 shot that you think has a decent shot (ought to be 10-1) or the 3-1 shot you think ought to be 2-1 or the 6-5 favorite you think can't be beat and can pair up for some solid exactas or trifectas.

[held]

Brother Derek tries to eat his rider-story at 10.

[MattW]

I actually do give myself an advantage in Blackjack and netted a 300% return in 2005. Read "Bringing Down the House" sometime. I'm not as good as these guys were, but it'll show you it's possible. I'm not going to say anything else about horses because, again, I'm not experienced.

[nobodies]

I love to gamble, but never loved playing the horses. I went to an OTB one afternoon with a friend and it sucked. I don't think I won a single race, and the odds were never good.

ridiculous. Not saying you have to like the track or horseracing, but if you don't like it because 1) you didn't win; and 2) "the odds were never good" - wtf does that even mean? You bet longshots, you bet favorites, I have no clue. When betting horses, you get relatively fair odds actually based on the betters' perceptions of who will win. In black jack or other gambling you get predetermined odds based on your mathematical chance of winning (less the casino's take). I don't see how one is better than the other.

I really think the odds are the greatest thing about horse betting. Rather than playing a hand of blackjack where you can win however much you bet, you can get short odds by betting favorites (or betting to place or show) or get significantly bigger odds by playing longshots or exotics. Much more intricate and interesting than blackjack in my opinion.

My guess is you just aren't interested in learning the game (which can be imposing, admittedly) - people generally prefer quick action to something requiring too much mental capacity, hence the popularity of the mindnumbing slot machines.

Haven't studied the Derby yet, but I'm rooting for "Showing Up".

Wow...make a simple observation and get lectured. I'll make it more clear, I just didn't like hanging around an OTB establishment. It was way more depressing than any riverboat I've been too, and that's saying a lot considering I've been to the boats on weekday mornings on more than one occasion. I also don't like waiting in between races. It's just boring. Maybe I'd enjoy the track more as a social experience...but just straight betting horses I found to be boring.

I also don't get how it's more or less exotic than blackjack. Odds are placed on the horse, and you bet. Yes I know that there's the research and all that stuff, but how is that more or less interesting than determining the odds you're facing against dealer cards and other cards on the table?

Also, for me, one of the things that makes blackjack more fun than other games is the communal experience. It's the table vs the house; and if you have a fun/knowledgeable table and a fun dealer; there are few games that are more rewarding, financially and socially (craps is ok, but I never liked the whole roll of the die aspect).

[MattW]

It was way more depressing than any riverboat I've been too, and that's saying a lot considering I've been to the boats on weekday mornings on more than one occasion.

Wow.

If it ever comes to this for me, I'm checking into rehab.

[elcorazon]

I also don't get how it's more or less exotic than blackjack. Odds are placed on the horse, and you bet. Yes I know that there's the research and all that stuff, but how is that more or less interesting than determining the odds you're facing against dealer cards and other cards on the table?

Not trying to be a pain, just reacting to your initial point before and trying to figure out what you meant (still don't exactly understand, but whatever). As far as this point goes, the "research and all that stuff" is exactly what makes horseracing more interesting TO ME. I'm a math guy and I do love figuring out the odds in cards, but it's kind of a sterile math problem compared with trying to figure out how a horse will run today with all of the variables involved - distance, breeding, performance last time out, previous performances, jockey, trainer, post position, track condition, whether the horse has been working out well, how the race will unfold from a tactical standpoint, etc. etc.

I guess it's more like betting on a football game and all the variables that are involved in it, as opposed to card playing.

[Howard Rock]

I guess it's more like betting on a football game and all the variables that are involved in it, as opposed to card playing.

Interesting discussion. I'm not the least bit interested in horse racing.

Abpos, the only problem I see with your metaphor (horseracing/football) is that, unlike the Kentucky Derby, there aren't 18 football teams playing at the same time.