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Chinese Democracy "Tentative" Release Date


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#961 r.i.p.

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Posted 12 December 2008 - 12:07 AM

Portishead was away for over a decade, hardly toured to promote, had zero singles on the radio in the US and have sold 1.5 million of a bleak krautrock record that is showing up atop tons of year end lists. Honestly, I don't know that a tour would have helped. (It ain't helping Corgan.) It would only have driven home the fact that this is not Guns N Roses. And Axl has been awful in every live performance I've seen him in since 1994. Somehow I doubt that going on 3 hours late and angrily walking off stage would boost sales. I think it's for the best that Axl stays a enigmatic recluse.

#962 The Sheck

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Posted 12 December 2008 - 12:07 AM

Going back a bit for a second...Montana, you don't think why 'it set an all-time record for most streams' has anything to do with how poorly it sold? This was arguably the most hyped, most anticipated disc of the last decade, and it's not Best Buy that killed it, it's the Internet and how it factors in to the ways we listen to music. These days, it's hear before you buy, and I guess enough people thought this record was a piece of crap not to invest $10 in it thanks to imeem and torrents. AC/DC and The Eagles succeeded also because they laid low for the better part of a decade, making the fans wonder what happened to them. (I just saw Very Metal's post, and Portishead fits that description, too) Axl was all over the goddamn place during those 14 years, doing and saying things in the press that made him look like a huge tool. The release dates of CD being pushed back for years, the amount of money spent on making the album, the disastrous performance at the VMAs in 2001 where he was out of shape and out of breath halfway through the set, etc. He became a running punchline to a joke. He sort of became Britney Spears in a way. Not putting out a record for all that time combined with the bad press made people forget about the music. And he's not a cultural icon like Spears is to where he can still sell records for being crazy or fucked up all the time. Here's what Axl should do. Lie low. Get back together with Izzy, Duff, and Slash. Record a single or two with those guys to remind everyone how good this band was, and take it on the road. They could still sell out arenas provided it was the original lineup.

#963 Pookie

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Posted 12 December 2008 - 12:10 AM

I'm not trying to convince anyone the economy is good. It's in the shitter. I was just pointing out fact. You act like retail stores were a ghost town in order to justify that record bombing. People were out in stores that weekend. That's all I'm saying.

Has the record sold 300,000? If it has, it barely has, and it dropped tremendously from week 1 to 2. Look at billboard charts. It takes a solid 3 months of hanging around the upper ends of the charts to go gold. T.I. hasn't gone freaking gold yet (with 2 No. 1 singles and 10 weeks in stores). You really see this thing selling 20,000 copies a week for over two more months? You're out of your mind. It will go down week to week until it struggles to get to 400,000.

Look, look. We're getting away from the main point, which is that you're delusional in thinking that this record is 1) good and 2) a hit.



It will go gold because, as solace wisely pointed out, it's not about albums bought, it's about CDs shipped.

In two weeks, it has sold 318,000 (261,000 and 57,000). It will take a while to get to the point where Chinese Democracy actually sells a half million copies, but it will get there.

Even having said this, its fall from week one to week two is one of the most dramatic drops I have seen in recent memory. Given all the money and time spent on it, the album going gold in America is still going to be seen by most as a major flop.

#964 Montana

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Posted 12 December 2008 - 12:24 AM

Going back a bit for a second...Montana, you don't think why 'it set an all-time record for most streams' has anything to do with how poorly it sold? This was arguably the most hyped, most anticipated disc of the last decade, and it's not Best Buy that killed it, it's the Internet and how it factors in to the ways we listen to music. These days, it's hear before you buy, and I guess enough people thought this record was a piece of crap not to invest $10 in it thanks to imeem and torrents.

AC/DC and The Eagles succeeded also because they laid low for the better part of a decade, making the fans wonder what happened to them. (I just saw Very Metal's post, and Portishead fits that description, too) Axl was all over the goddamn place during those 14 years, doing and saying things in the press that made him look like a huge tool.



The Eagles were touring the country in that time, they just weren't making records.


The release dates of CD being pushed back for years, the amount of money spent on making the album, the disastrous performance at the VMAs in 2001 where he was out of shape and out of breath halfway through the set, etc. He became a running punchline to a joke. He sort of became Britney Spears in a way. Not putting out a record for all that time combined with the bad press made people forget about the music. And he's not a cultural icon like Spears is to where he can still sell records for being crazy or fucked up all the time.



That's exactly right. He's the anti-Spears. He does zero promotion, zero media whore B.S.




Here's what Axl should do. Lie low.


Isn't that what he's been doing? He hasn't even been seen...... sixteeen yars between albums is kinda lying low.....



h. Record a single or two with those guys to remind everyone how good this band was, and take it on the road. They could still sell out arenas provided it was the original lineup.


Axl still sells out all over the world., He doesn't need the others save for Izzy, and he certainly doesn't need to try and remake Appetite.
Every Sunday morning I wake up
I see you by your dresser doing your make-up
Fluttering a Chinese fan in a Knoxville fashion
All last night you tossed and turned
Your body was hotter than the night Richmond burned
You say you had a bad nightmare about tractor trailers crashing
- The Felice Brothers

#965 Montana

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Posted 12 December 2008 - 12:25 AM

Even having said this, its fall from week one to week two is one of the most dramatic drops I have seen in recent memory. Given all the money and time spent on it, the album going gold in America is still going to be seen by most as a major flop.



It makes sense though because Black Friday to Cyber Monday was about the only decent activity at Best Buy. Sales at electronics stores are down 25% compared to last year.
Every Sunday morning I wake up
I see you by your dresser doing your make-up
Fluttering a Chinese fan in a Knoxville fashion
All last night you tossed and turned
Your body was hotter than the night Richmond burned
You say you had a bad nightmare about tractor trailers crashing
- The Felice Brothers

#966 Montana

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Posted 12 December 2008 - 12:31 AM

Portishead was away for over a decade, hardly toured to promote, had zero singles on the radio in the US and have sold 1.5 million of a bleak krautrock record that is showing up atop tons of year end lists.


Third debuted at #7 in the U.S. and #2 in the U.K., and there was no exclusivity. I can't stress enough how having the album ONLY at a luxury store in a horrible economy hurt the sales.

That said, I'm not sure when the exclusivity period is over with Best Buy, but I wouldn't be surprised if "Better" and "Catcher In The Rye" don't boost things up a bit in the future when that exclusivity period is over.


Also, Chinese Democracy is at around 800,000 sales in the first two 1/2 weeks worldwide.


Some more stats:


Unit count information as of August 31, 2008
United States: 4,227 total units
Wal-Mart discount stores (914)
Supercenters (2,576)
Sam's Clubs (594)
Neighborhood Markets (143)


Now for Best Buy....
1,400 Best Buy stores in the U.S.



People had to choose from 1,400 stores across the U.S. to buy the album in a terrible economy in a sector down 25%.......
Every Sunday morning I wake up
I see you by your dresser doing your make-up
Fluttering a Chinese fan in a Knoxville fashion
All last night you tossed and turned
Your body was hotter than the night Richmond burned
You say you had a bad nightmare about tractor trailers crashing
- The Felice Brothers

#967 Pookie

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Posted 12 December 2008 - 12:39 AM

Even having said this, its fall from week one to week two is one of the most dramatic drops I have seen in recent memory. Given all the money and time spent on it, the album going gold in America is still going to be seen by most as a major flop.



It makes sense though because Black Friday to Cyber Monday was about the only decent activity at Best Buy. Sales at electronics stores are down 25% compared to last year.



True. I'm still kind of shocked at the drop off in the second week. I mean, it only sold a little over 20% of what it did the previous week, though, unlike some others, I thought it had a pretty good first week. We'll see if another single can keep the album on the charts for a while or if it has gone South for good.

#968 Montana

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Posted 12 December 2008 - 12:45 AM

True. I'm still kind of shocked at the drop off in the second week. I mean, it only sold a little over 20% of what it did the previous week, though, unlike some others, I thought it had a pretty good first week. We'll see if another single can keep the album on the charts for a while or if it has gone South for good.



I guess we will see.


Some interesting Europe news that may give a few hints (note there is no exclusivity over there):

http://www.contactmu...20album_1088606

GUNS N' ROSES' comeback has been given a boost - the band's new album CHINESE DEMOCRACY has topped the European charts.
Paul Sexton of Billboard.biz reports that GUNS N' ROSES' new album, "Chinese Democracy" has topped the new European Top 100. Despite missing out on the number one spot in several territories, consistent number two and three debuts were enough to give Axl Rose's rockers a continental chart topper.
The album has hit number one in Switzerland and Finland



Jumping from #3 to #1 in Poland? Strange:

http://www.zpav.pl/
Every Sunday morning I wake up
I see you by your dresser doing your make-up
Fluttering a Chinese fan in a Knoxville fashion
All last night you tossed and turned
Your body was hotter than the night Richmond burned
You say you had a bad nightmare about tractor trailers crashing
- The Felice Brothers

#969 The Sheck

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Posted 12 December 2008 - 02:38 AM

The Eagles were touring the country in that time, they just weren't making records.


Still, there was quite a demand for a new disc, even if they were on the road constantly. GnR was on the road too around the same time and they couldn't build demand, not to mention sell out arenas.

That's exactly right. He's the anti-Spears. He does zero promotion, zero media whore B.S.


No, he just lets Best Buy handle all the promotion for a large sum of cash. :rolleyes: Seriously, how many times did we read in the press about Chinese Democracy coming out 'soon,' or 'this year' from his mouth since 1999? People just got tired of him over that time period. There used to be an aura of mystique about the guy, but when you don't put out records, and essentially lie to the public about when they're coming out, is it that much of a surprise people don't care what he does anymore enough to buy his albums.

Here's what Axl should do. Lie low.


Isn't that what he's been doing? He hasn't even been seen...... sixteeen yars between albums is kinda lying low.....


You can't say Axl's been laying low when he did the exact same thing the Eagles did (touring) over the same time period. I've already mentioned the frivolous lawsuits, which made him look silly in the press, the VMA disaster, which was seen by more people than any of his shows, and the fiasco about when the record was coming out.

Axl still sells out all over the world., He doesn't need the others save for Izzy, and he certainly doesn't need to try and remake Appetite.


Who said anything about remaking Appetite? He's got a better shot at getting people to care about GnR again if he does some collaborating with the fellas. He may not 'need' those guys to make music, but that's what the fans WANT to happen. Only time will tell, I guess...

#970 Mitchell

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Posted 12 December 2008 - 03:23 AM

Is this even going to outsell Contraband in the US? It did 150k in the first week here and > 50k (probably much less) the week after. People have moved on.
Nice bowl of Crunchy Nut you got here, pretty expensive as I recall.

#971 Sickpup

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Posted 12 December 2008 - 07:27 AM

this thread is just silly. i'll buy montana's premise that the exclusivity deal has hurt sales of CD overall, but the steep drop in week 2 speaks to the album itself, not outside factors. There's no reason to believe that there was a steeper dropoff in traffic at best buy last week than there was at any other retail outlet. what percentage did kanye and killers fall off in week 2? compare that percentage to the percentage dropoff for CD, and you've got apples to apples. CD's apple, I imagine, judged by that standard, pretty closely resembles a turkey.

#972 Sickpup

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Posted 12 December 2008 - 07:43 AM

my point proven:

How far did last week's mighty fall on the album sales chart?
Last week's No. 1, Kanye West's "808s & Heartbreak," sold 142,000 copies and dropped to No. 4, a 69% dip, according to Nielsen Soundscan data. Ludacris’ “Theater of the Mind” and the Killers’ “Day and Age” experienced 69% sales dips as well as both dropped 10 slots. Ludacris sold 65,000 copies (No. 15); the Killers did 61,000 (No. 16).

Guns N’ Roses’ “Chinese Democracy” took the biggest pounding, selling 57,000 copies — a 78% drop — and slid 15 slots to No. 18.


so, basically, the other big releases from last week took a dive (69% tumble), but CD took a bigger one (78% drop). And sorry, Montana, but a 9% difference is outside the standard error range.

and don't tell me that electronics sales suffered a greater week-to-week drop than other retail goods, although i'm sure you will...

#973 r.i.p.

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Posted 12 December 2008 - 09:34 AM

It's going to continue to suffer similar drops. The record's sold to just about anyone who gives a shit. Sales ain't gonna somehow "pick up" in January, and like I said, it needs about 12 solid weeks on the charts to even hope to go gold. "Chinese Democracy" was on the radio, and this is one of about 4 new rock albums that I've ever seen television commercials for. It's not surprising it's doing better in countries that enjoy Rammstein. Or, countries that don't have Axl Rose living in them.

#974 M_Rots

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Posted 12 December 2008 - 10:08 AM

A generally accepted truism around the SOMB is that sales figures are not a determinant of quality, a truism we have to have since so many of us are fans of Frightened Rabbit and Jay Reatard. Montana, I know, does not buy this truism, as he premissmuch of his argment in favor of borth The Eagles and Pink Floyd on sales figures and the whole "50 million Elvis fans can't be wrong" notion.

I am unclear, then, what you guys accomplish by arguing about CD's sales slump, apart from demonstrating what seems an inarguable fact based on the numbers. If all you're doing is that, ok, but what's the point?

If you're arguing that the sales dropoff owes more to the lack of quality in the record, then you're playing Montana's game by Montana's rules And you'll never win, b/c he won't let you.

It does make me want to renew my public admiration for Monty, however.

#975 Guy

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Posted 12 December 2008 - 10:35 AM

A generally accepted truism around the SOMB is that sales figures are not a determinant of quality, a truism we have to have since so many of us are fans of Frightened Rabbit and Jay Reatard. Montana, I know, does not buy this truism, as he premissmuch of his argment in favor of borth The Eagles and Pink Floyd on sales figures and the whole "50 million Elvis fans can't be wrong" notion.

Mr Montana selectively applies this as a truism. Strong sales relate to quality if the artist is the Eagles or Pink Floyd. Strong sales have an inverse relationship to quality when it is a High School Musical soundtrack.
There is no relationship between quality and sales.
Let me take you to McDonald's and order nothing but coffee.

#976 r.i.p.

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Posted 12 December 2008 - 10:37 AM

In other news, Axl posted on the GNR board, bickering and bantering with fans:

http://www.mygnrforu...howtopic=133058

If you're scared of wallowing in such a place (who can blame you?), it sinks to this:

axl:
Not real bright are ya?

fan:
No, not really.

Then again I'm not the one who needs a house keeper to wipe my ass.

axl:
Ah... another cunt! So shocking!

axl:
Aw c'mon, nobody wants to play? U go on forever about where am I and I'm right here.

fan:
Yeah, I'm a miserable cunt who's not a fan of the band and Axl doesn't need fans like me.

Reality check here.

The only one's who's a apparently a miserable cunt is somebody who alienates and hides himself from the world and blames fans who pays his bills so he eat his duck roast dinner's.

Axl instead of coming here and calling me a cunt get off your ass and stick your head out of the fucking window. "All I've got in the press is shit after shit" which is exactly what we have gotten. Instead of being so butt sore over what some dude on the Internet says do what you do best put on a helluva of a show and make good music.


#977 Agrimorfee

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Posted 12 December 2008 - 12:01 PM

Sounds a lot like some of our convos here. :D

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#978 M_Rots

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Posted 12 December 2008 - 12:48 PM

In other news, Axl posted on the GNR board, bickering and bantering with fans:

http://www.mygnrforu...howtopic=133058

If you're scared of wallowing in such a place (who can blame you?), it sinks to this:

axl:
Not real bright are ya?

fan:
No, not really.

Then again I'm not the one who needs a house keeper to wipe my ass.

axl:
Ah... another cunt! So shocking!

axl:
Aw c'mon, nobody wants to play? U go on forever about where am I and I'm right here.

fan:
Yeah, I'm a miserable cunt who's not a fan of the band and Axl doesn't need fans like me.

Reality check here.

The only one's who's a apparently a miserable cunt is somebody who alienates and hides himself from the world and blames fans who pays his bills so he eat his duck roast dinner's.

Axl instead of coming here and calling me a cunt get off your ass and stick your head out of the fucking window. "All I've got in the press is shit after shit" which is exactly what we have gotten. Instead of being so butt sore over what some dude on the Internet says do what you do best put on a helluva of a show and make good music.


My respect for Rose has increased. I didn't have any respect for him a few minutes ago. If this is typical of his "fans" I'll side with Rose every day of the week. Presumably, fans "pay his bills" in return for the excellence of his product, so it's actually Axl ensuring his own salary, not his fans providing him with a way of living out of the goodness of their hearts.

#979 JuniusMaltby

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Posted 12 December 2008 - 01:27 PM

Look, look. We're getting away from the main point, which is that you're delusional in thinking that this record is 1) good and 2) a hit.



Well, it got pretty good reviews as indicated in this thread and has already surpassed 500,000 records worldwide in a couple weeks....

There's been no tour to support it, no face time from Axl, and Guns N Roses haven't released and album in 16 years so it's doing pretty well based on that.

I agree with Northern Voice that "Chinese Democracy" was not the best single, and that "Better"was better ;)

What's interesting is that in the UK where there was no exclusivity to a luxury store, Chinese Democracy sold 50,000 records in it's first day. Strange that it would only do 260,000 or so in one week in the U.S. with 5x the population.


Just please stop calling BBY a luxury store. It pains me to hear it. Consumer Electronics? Yes. Higher average ticket price than WMT? Yes. Reasonable to compare to Tiffany, Saks, Neiman Marcus.

Also, I think I saw a post asking for comp sales for UYI in the first week. Here are the official stats. For the record, economy was in recession in late 1991, too.

http://www.financial...html?id=1042298
"Chinese Democracy" sold a modest 261,000 copies. The tally paled against those of the band's last studio efforts, "Use Your Illusion I" and "Use Your Illusion II," which debuted at Nos. 2 and 1, respectively, with sales of 685,000 and 770,000 after being released on the same day in 1991.

Who's the loser? BBY - album did not improve average basket sales. I'm sure Axl and Geffen are still in the red, but not as much given the exclusive rights buyout.

So at the end of the day - what does this all mean?
Decent reviews, availability via 1,800 BBY stores and on iTunes, little to no marketing, record-breaking streaming ... to me, this adds up as anyone who was interested listed, with most choosing not to buy because they don't consider it a good album.



My $0.02.

#980 _____________

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Posted 12 December 2008 - 02:07 PM

so what's the incentive for these bands (GnR, Eagles, AC/DC, Pumpkins) to sell exclusively thru these bog box stores? how big can the bonus check for the exclusivity be? is it really worth it? or is Wal-Mart telling them that if they don't get exclusive rights to sell it then they won't sell it at all? greed is a hell of a drug. the fact that these bands completely shut out mom and pop independent record store culture is such a load of shit... way to piss on the little guys who have been on your side all along.