Tony Blair, The beginning of the end Options

[Mitchell]

With the Labour party conference fast approaching I thought I'd start a thread so we can all keep an eye on America's favourite friend.

Blair: I want another 12 months

PM will quit by summer next year but rules out announcement at conference

Patrick Wintour, political editor
Friday September 1, 2006
The Guardian


Tony Blair said yesterday he would not give a timetable for his departure before or during the Labour party conference this month, although friends indicated that he will stand down next year.
His refusal to clarify his intentions in public angered leftwing Labour MPs, who said the confusion could not go on. However, one source said: "He is trying not to convey the impression that he is in a mood of defiance."

The prime minister's current thinking is that he will stand down next summer. An announcement is most likely to come before the May elections for the Welsh assembly and Scottish parliament, which are expected to see heavy Labour losses. Mr Blair is in a quandary, believing that he would lose his remaining authority if he were to set an explicit date now.
Yesterday he tried to ride out the demands for an early timetable, saying: "If people want stable and orderly change, they should not keep obsessing about it in the meantime, but instead get on with the business of government."

He added: "I really think it is absurd for the people who say we must stop this continual speculation about the leadership to continue to speculate about it. I'm not the one who keeps raising this issue. I have done what no other prime minister has done before me. I've said I'm not going to go on and on and on, and said I'll leave ample time for my successor.

Asked in the interview in the Times to state categorically whether he would say more to defuse the issue before or at the conference, he said that he had said all he could. "I think, if it is speculation that people are worried about, there is a simple answer - stop speculating. If what they are really worried about is timing, I think most of you can look at at what I have said and draw conclusions about that," he said.

Mr Blair has previously said in public that he will stand down early enough to give his successor "ample time" to succeed him, but backbench MPs are agitating for a clear timetable - or at least an explicit statement that this year's party conference will be his last. Private briefings that it is his intention to stand down next year may not satisfy them.

The 32-strong Welsh group of Labour MPs is to meet in special session on September to discuss the state of the party and the leadership. The meeting was called in response to the Middle East crisis, but Welsh MPs said yesterday the discussion would now centre on the damage to Labour if Mr Blair sought to stay and lead the party into the Welsh elections.

The secretary of the leftwing Compass Group of MPs, Jon Trickett, said: "There is chaos and confusion at the top. We have to have clarity about when he is going to go. We cannot go on as we are."

Mr Blair still wants to use his remaining period of power to lead a debate on the direction of the party, and the agenda facing Britain in the next decade, but his hopes that the agitation on the backbenches would die away, opening the space for such a discussion, have so far been quashed. He fears that the political running is being made by the party's left. He said most of those agitating for him to stand down are seeking not a change of leader, but instead of political direction.

A group of former Blairite ministers is expected to sign a joint letter next week backing Mr Blair's call for a debate on the party's future. The move is designed to supplement interventions by figures such as Charles Clarke and Alan Milburn.

http://politics.guardian.co.uk/labour/stor...src=rss&feed=11

[Mitchell]

hotting up

Minister joins Blair exit demands

One minister and four government aides are among 17 normally loyal Labour MPs who have written to Tony Blair urging him to quit.

Junior defence minister Tom Watson is the most senior signatory.

Minister David Miliband earlier tried to silence the exit calls by saying Mr Blair would quit in a year's time.

Forty-nine Labour MPs have backed Mr Blair, saying Mr Miliband has given the certainty Labour needs.

The flurry of letters and counter-statements came as Downing Street distanced itself from a leaked memo detailing plans for a farewell tour by Mr Blair celebrating his achievements.

Mr Blair last week rejected calls to use this month's Labour Party conference to name a timetable for his departure.

But his words failed to silence calls from many normally loyal Labour backbenchers who have called on him to end uncertainty by naming the date.


He should be the star who won't even play that last encore
Leaked memo from Blair allies


A senior Cabinet source confirmed the letter from 17 Labour MPs, all of whom entered Parliament in 2001, calling on Mr Blair to go had been seen by Downing Street.

The group is understood to include junior Defence Minister Tom Watson and ministerial aides Khalid Mahmood, Wayne David, Ian Lucas and David Wright - also signed the letter.

The Cabinet source said the letter was likely to convince Mr Blair he needed to say more about his departure plans.

Blairite MPs Chris Bryant and Sion Simon are understood to have co-ordinated the letter from the 2001 intake.

But Mr Bryant refused to comment on its contents, telling BBC Wales that if he had sent the prime minister a private letter it would be "a private matter".


Albert Owen, a Welsh Labour MP elected in 2001, said he had not been approached about the letter but had written personally to Mr Blair over the weekend urging him to go "sooner rather than later".

A second letter from a group of new Labour MPs has also been drafted but not yet been sent.

Bristol MP Kerry McCarthy, who was elected last year, said she had not yet signed it but agreed the party's troubles had to be resolved soon, with Mr Blair leaving by the spring.

Another member of the 2005 intake, who did not want to be named, said the letter called on Mr Blair to go immediately, although it was only in draft form and might change before being sent.

The MP said politically Mr Blair was a "wounded man" and should step down at this month's party conference to end damaging speculation and "media hype".

Sir Jeremy Beecham, chairman of Labour's national executive committee, said the letters were misconceived.

Mr Blair was "conscious of what needs to be done" and would ensure a new leader was in place by the time of next year's Labour conference, said Sir Jeremy.

Speaking earlier, Environment Secretary David Miliband said he agreed with the "conventional wisdom" that Mr Blair would stand down in a year's time.

But he said he had not spoken to Mr Blair about the date.

Labour MP Karen Buck's office said 49 MPs had signed a statement welcoming Mr Miliband's "clarification".

Ms Buck urged people not to turn an "orderly transition into a crisis of regicide".

Meanwhile, a leaked memo suggesting a farewell tour to promote the "triumph of Blairism" has been published by the Daily Mirror.

The memo, reportedly drawn up by a group of his allies, including his pollster Philip Gould, says: "He needs to go with the crowd wanting more."

Downing Street says neither Mr Blair nor any senior No 10 staff have seen the memo.

The reports come as a Populus poll suggested the Conservatives would have a strong lead over Labour whether Mr Blair stayed on, or was replaced by Gordon Brown or John Reid.

The poll of 1,504 people also suggested 30% of Labour voters and 51% of the general public wanted Mr Blair to step down this year.

[Jimmy TKB]

If he stays or goes, your country is much more sensibly led than ours, Mitchell my friend. Also, your news stories aren't written for 8 year olds, which I think is excellent.

[Mitchell]

Gaps between sentences on news.bbc suggests otherwise.

[Freddie Freelanc...]

From here it's sounding like Junior MPs chomping at the bit to take over for the old fogeys. Is there anyone in a good position to take over, or are they willing to give up power to another party while they attempt to consolidate their power?

[Mitchell]

Well there's obviously Godern Brown but the Blairites are worried about losing their postions of influnce and power so a Anyone But Brown candiate could make a case Alan Milburn has always been at the front of that queue but John Reid is catching him fast.

[Guest_NumberTenOx_*]

Well there's obviously Godern Brown but the Blairites are worried about losing their postions of influnce and power so a Anyone But Brown candiate could make a case Alan Milburn has always been at the front of that queue but John Reid is catching him fast.

Wasn't Brown "supposed" to take over? I seem to remember reading something about how Blair had said he would back Brown.

[Mitchell]

Brown is certainly the man who would be king and it's been that way for a long time (Supposedly Brown didn't challenge the 1994 Labour party leadership as Blair said he would only serve two terms if elected.) I wouldn't put money on anyone apart from Brown, I'd get lousy 2/7 odds too. But the less say Blair has in his depature date the more likely that a spanner wil be thrown up somehwere.

[Guest_NumberTenOx_*]

Brown is certainly the man who would be king and it's been that way for a long time (Supposedly Brown didn't challenge the 1994 Labour party leadership as Blair said he would only serve two terms if elected.) I wouldn't put money on anyone apart from Brown, I'd get lousy 2/7 odds too. But the less say Blair has in his depature date the more likely that a spanner wil be thrown up somehwere.

Brown as PM? Whaddya think? He's sharp, but there's something about the man that smacks of sharkiness.

[Mitchell]

Suits me fine at the moment, always been a big fan. Anything that keeps "Call me Dave" out of no. 10.

[Mitchell]

Wednesday's newspapers have reached fever pitch over the possible departure of Prime Minister Tony Blair.

The Sun goes furthest, naming the date he will step down as Labour leader - 31 May 2007 - and as prime minister - 26 July, although Downing Street is silent.

It was the Sun that memorably said the 2001 elections would definitely go ahead on 3 May despite foot-and-mouth, only for them to be postponed.

Could lightning strike the newspaper twice?

The Daily Telegraph dubs Tony Blair's departure "the long goodbye", and says Labour could tear itself apart between now and next spring.

The Times talks about 100 Labour MPs insisting Mr Blair must name the date or face mounting pressure.

Columnist Alice Miles argues talk of a smooth transition is wrong and that Britain needs a leadership contest.

The Daily Mail goes with the Sun's bold prediction and says 31 May, but claims Gordon Brown was not consulted.

The Guardian says allies of chancellor Gordon Brown are not happy with the absence of a public declaration from the prime minister.

And, the paper says, they want Blairite critics like Stephen Byers and Alan Milburn to be stopped from commenting on the future of reforms.

In the Independent, the front page is dominated by pictures of 12 MPs it says have signed a letter to Mr Blair.

It also carries a piece from minister John Hutton demanding a proper contest.

The Daily Mirror relegates the furore over Tony Blair's departure to pages 10 and 11, while its leader column says "Cool this exit fever".

After years of Tory in-fighting, Labour politicians should be careful about wishing for Mr Blair's brutal exit, the newspaper suggests.

The Daily Express says that Mr Blair's use of minister David Miliband to calm things has not worked.

And the Financial Times notes how bookies believe Mr Blair will leave next year.

[Mitchell]

The day Blair accused his chancellor of blackmail

· Brown demands PM go by Christmas
· Shouting match as PM refuses joint premiership

Patrick Wintour, political editor
Thursday September 7, 2006
The Guardian

An all-out power struggle between the chancellor and the prime minister, culminating with allegations of blackmail by Tony Blair and a ferocious shouting match between the two men, appeared last night to have forced Mr Blair to publicly declare as early as today that he will not be prime minister this time next year. That may not be enough for Gordon Brown, who is understood to have demanded that Mr Blair quit by Christmas, with an effective joint premiership until a new leader is anointed by the party.

Mr Blair's statement - possibly to be made when he attends a north London school with education secretary Alan Johnson today - will effectively confirm what cabinet ministers, including David Miliband, have been hinting about his intentions in the past few days. It represents a further shift in position as the prime minister struggles to cling to office and prevent a meltdown in the party.
But last night Mr Brown found himself under pressure to repudiate the move by some MPs to force Mr Blair from office now. The Treasury hinted last night that it could accept a deal in which Mr Blair stood down by the beginning of May, so long as the prime minister made a public declaration of this intention within the coming months.

In probably the most astonishing day in the annals of New Labour, the use of the word blackmail to describe Mr Brown's actions over the past few days by Downing Street staff was authorised by Mr Blair, and reflected his view that Mr Brown is orchestrating a coup against him. Downing Street claimed the resignation yesterday of the junior defence minister Tom Watson and six parliamentary aides came with Mr Brown's agreement. The seven men quit the government demanding that Mr Blair stand down immediately. Later in the evening, another of the letter's signatories, Iain Wright, resigned as a parliamentary private secretary in the Department of Health.

Downing Street's allegations led to counter accusations from the Brown camp of intimidation of backbench MPs by No 10 aides desperate to cling to office. As a result, the chances of the much prized stable and orderly transition between the two men looked to have collapsed.

The recriminations came after meetings between the two men at Downing Street ended yesterday afternoon with Mr Blair rejecting Mr Brown's terms for allowing him to remain in office, including an accelerated timetable for Mr Blair's resignation by Christmas, and an effective joint premiership in the interim.

Blairites claimed that Mr Brown also demanded a public endorsement of the chancellor's leadership candidacy, and repudiation of the idea of a fundamental debate about the Labour party's future. Mr Blair's aides demanded that Mr Brown distance himself from what the chief whip, Jacqui Smith, described as "an attempt to bundle Mr Blair from office".

At one point Mr Blair was also warned that unless he relented on the date and terms of his resignation there would be more senior resignations from government today. A more emollient account was given by the Treasury, asserting that Mr Blair recognised that he would have to move on his position that he would not state whether he would go next year.

The two meetings between Mr Brown and Mr Blair, totalling three and a half hours, occurred after Mr Watson and the parliamentary aides resigned. They were part of a group of 15 MPs who wrote privately to the prime minister claiming that he was now an electoral liability. News of the letter leaked to the Guardian on Monday.

In the letter, released yesterday, the 15, many of them previously loyal backbenchers, described themselves as modernisers and wrote: "Sadly, it is clear to us - as it is to almost the entire party and the entire country - that without an urgent change in the leadership of the party it becomes less likely that we will win the next election. That is the brutal truth. It gives us no pleasure to say it. But it has to be said. And understood."

Ominously for Mr Blair, the leader of the Commons, Jack Straw, went to see him to underline the pressure on him. The transport secretary, Douglas Alexander, refused to pledge support. And the environment secretary, David Miliband, said in an interview that only Mr Brown could save the party, and urged his colleagues to avoid civil war. But the health secretary, Patricia Hewitt, accused the letter writers of madness, saying they were forgetting the lessons of Labour's strife in the 1980s, and adding: "It looks as if they are trying to engineer a coup". Three of Mr Blair's cabinet allies, the culture secretary, Tessa Jowell, the lord chancellor, Lord Falconer, and the home secretary, John Reid, were all abroad.

At the height of the breakdown in relations yesterday, one Blairite and former cabinet minister close to the discussions said: "Threatening a serving prime minister in this way borders on the unconstitutional. We are a democracy, not an autocracy living in the era of the Soviet Union circa 1956. There is no way people can be muzzled in the way the chancellor is demanding." The rivals' second meeting came at Mr Blair's request. Earlier Mr Brown had called on him to declare that he would quit the leadership before the end of May. Mr Blair refused. The second meeting also appeared to end in deadlock.

It also emerged that an attempted mediation between the two camps organised by the Blairite Lord Falconer and the Brownite industry secretary, Alistair Darling, fell apart on Monday.

[Mitchell]

Blair's 48 bloody hours
By Nick Assinder
Political correspondent, BBC News website


After a second day of frenzied political manoeuvring and plotting in Westminster, Tony Blair appears to have accepted the inevitable and is expected to finally announce a timetable for his resignation within hours.

It is thought that, in meetings with Gordon Brown and others, he has been forced to face the real prospect of being removed from office by his own party unless he names the day.

So, in what seems likely to formally mark the ending of his nine-year premiership, Mr Blair will set out his plans in public - precisely what he has been desperate to avoid doing ever since he announced his intention not to stand for a fourth term in office before the last election.

Commons leader Jack Straw has suggested that might see a timetable that would see Mr Blair announcing his resignation before or around the time of next May's local and regional elections on 3 May.

There would then be a period of weeks for the leadership election, with the prime minister's successor taking over by the end of the parliamentary session at the end of July 2007.

Mr Blair's enforced about-face on the issue has only come after 48 bloody hours which have witnessed the resignation of one junior minister and seven government aides, demands for him to go immediately from many party figures and the alleged meltdown of his strained relationship with his likely successor Gordon Brown during heated meetings in Downing Street.

Acrimonious exchanges

Speculation was rife that the chancellor had demanded a personal announcement from the prime minister on a precise resignation day - and one well before the 31 May 2007 timetable hinted at by Blair allies - as the price for his support during a short handover period.

That had led to acrimonious exchanges between the two rivals and allegations that Mr Brown had been orchestrating a coup against Mr Blair.

It is hoped that the two men have reached an agreement that will set Mr Blair's resignation date in stone and, in exchange, see Mr Brown calling off his troops and ensuring the prime minister gets a clear run through to his retirement.


But that remains unclear as does the outcome of the battle by the chancellor and his supporters to see Mr Blair leaving Downing Street sooner rather than later.

As the chancellor was being accused of leading the coup against Mr Blair, so the prime minister was facing charges that he was trying to hang on to office as long as possible to allow an "anybody but Gordon" leadership candidate to emerge.

It is now indeed possible that there will be a wider than expected leadership election, with other candidates considering whether Mr Brown's moment has already passed.

If he is widely seen to have wielded the axe, that may also damage his standing amongst party activists. But what now seems abundantly clear is that Tony Blair has lost control of his own future and is being driven by events.

Lame duck

Ever since he announced his resignation plans there were fears he would not be able to organise the orderly transfer of power he promised.

His greatest fear was that, the moment he revealed a set date, he would instantly become a lame duck prime minister - exactly the charge that will now be levelled at him by the opposition parties.

Worse, the wrangling has given the impression of a government that is paralysed and obsessed only with the leadership rather than getting on with the job of running the country.

That too is something the prime minister was eager to avoid. But, in the end, he was unable to control it. And it was always likely that Gordon Brown, or his supporters at least, would start planning how to ensure the chancellor entered No 10 after Mr Blair.

But there had been questions over whether Mr Brown had the nerve to move against Mr Blair if he felt the moment demanded it - something it is claimed he has now done.

So, the end of Tony Blair's historic premiership is now clearly in sight. The only question which remains unanswered is the big one - just how soon will it be?

[Wayne Schlagel]

What's funny is that, despite the English being rather upset with Blair, Blair would be an insanely better alternative to Bush here.

[Mitchell]

Yeah, I'd be prepared to say that if it wasn't for Iraq he would quite easily be able to hold on for another two years. As much as I was against that at the start and throughout there was never any way he could go back on it. People here are kidding themselves if they think that a Conservative government would have made different choices about any of the controversial policies (Iraq, ID Cards, University fees) except fox hunting (and that's really not something I give two fucks about).

Things like the minimum wage, the smoking ban, the handling of the Economy, pouring money into schools and the NHS (albeit not with 100% sucess), starter homes for key workers, removal of Victorian licensing laws, the Good Friday agreement, removal of hereidtry peers, the Freedom of Information act, gay rights, speeches on climate change and getting the Olympics I couldn't see a Tory government (or in many cases an Non-Blair one) doing.

[Wayne Schlagel]

It's a shame that Blair is going out this way.

[Guest_NumberTenOx_*]

Yeah, I'd be prepared to say that if it wasn't for Iraq he would quite easily be able to hold on for another two years. As much as I was against that at the start and throughout there was never any way he could go back on it. People here are kidding themselves if they think that a Conservative government would have made different choices about any of the controversial policies (Iraq, ID Cards, University fees) except fox hunting (and that's really not something I give two fucks about).

Things like the minimum wage, the smoking ban, the handling of the Economy, pouring money into schools and the NHS (albeit not with 100% sucess), starter homes for key workers, removal of Victorian licensing laws, the Good Friday agreement, removal of hereidtry peers, the Freedom of Information act, gay rights, speeches on climate change and getting the Olympics I couldn't see a Tory government (or in many cases an Non-Blair one) doing.

Why am I reminded of this from Life of Brian:

Reg: All right, but apart from the sanitation, medicine, education, wine, public order, irrigation, roads, the fresh water system and public health, what have the Romans ever done for us?

[Hero]

So WHO is this Tony Blair guy i keep hearing about? Is he related to that speed skater?



























*kidding* hahaha

[Ben]

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This is hilarious to go back and watch. Real buddies.

[Mitchell]

Today is the day of Gordon's big speech and he, for the first time is going to be feeling the pressure more than Tony at the conference.

Gordon Brown will stake his claim to be Britain's next prime minister today by promising to mould a progressive centre ground in which the fight against "the environmental degradation of the planet" will form the pivotal element of his vision of a "good society".
In one of the most testing speeches of his career, he will set out his personal philosophy to the electorate by saying: "While some see politics as spectacle, I see politics as service because it is through service that you can make a difference and you can help people change their lives."

With echoes of the American Democrats' sweeping 1960s Great Society reform programme, he will set out his "vision of the good society", a Britain where "we believe in something bigger than ourselves and where we grow stronger and more prosperous by working together".
He will also disappoint some on the left by promising to govern from what he describes as a progressive centre, saying: "New Labour will never retreat, but positively entrench our position in the centre ground - in the mainstream as the party of reform; New Labour renewed, not just holding the centre ground, but modernising it in a progressive way."

After a weekend in which he highlighted his commitment to devolved public services, and constitutional reform, he will use his speech to rebut the charge that he has not paid enough attention to green issues during his nine years as chancellor.

Mr Brown will call for a four-pronged approach to climate change involving global cooperation, government incentives, business action and individuals changing their behaviour. But he will add that tackling the problem must not be an excuse for rich countries to impose a new "environmental colonialism" on the developing world, pulling up the ladder behind themselves to shelter an "unsustainable prosperity at the expense of progress for the poor".

In what is seen as the crucial test for the chancellor, his aides said his speech will amount to a declaration that he will never cede the environment to the Conservatives and the Liberal Democrats, both of which have called recently for green taxes. Mr Brown will say: "The environmental degradation of the planet is the biggest threat to our achievement of justice. It threatens all our ways of life, and the poorest will suffer most."

His initiatives came as Tony Blair, under repeated questioning, again held back from endorsing him as party leader yesterday, saying the leadership issue would "deal with itself in due course". Mr Blair lavishly praised the chancellor's record, but stressed that he wanted the conference to focus on reconnecting with the public. "We are not going to get emotionally engaged about the leadership issue this week," said one aide.

But Mr Blair, given an enthusiastic reception by delegates yesterday, and the health secretary, Patricia Hewitt, were lukewarm about Mr Brown's idea of an independent board to run the NHS. And last night, on the conference fringe, two of Mr Blair's closer allies, Peter Mandelson and Alan Milburn, issued coded warnings about Mr Brown's style of government.

Mr Mandelson said the party had suffered "a moment of madness two weeks ago", adding that he hoped there would not be a recurrence - a warning that no one should seek to force Mr Blair out early. He also said it would be wrong for the party to go back to the 1980s, when those who spoke against the line were criticised.

Mr Milburn indirectly raised the issue of Mr Brown's electability, on which the Labour jury is out. A focus group for the Guardian, in the wake of a damning ICM poll last week, found that Mr Brown was regarded as stronger, if not more likable, than potential challengers Alan Johnson and John Reid. But a YouGov poll in today's Daily Telegraph shows that the number of voters who believe Mr Brown will make a good prime minister has fallen to 27%, from 36% earlier this year.

Despite the calls for unity this week, private discussions are known to be under way between rival potential leadership candidates keen to examine who might attract the most support among MPs for a challenge. There is a strong view in parts of the cabinet that the party and electorate want a contest.

Mr Reid said: "What people are saying is they do not want a backroom deal, they want discussion and transparency. The days when Labour did those things in that way are long gone."

Writing in the Guardian, Douglas Alexander and David Miliband, pleaded for calm: "This week's conference must not become a 1980s moment. Looking to the challenges of the 21st century, we must talk ideas, not division; the theme of the conference must be setting a new course, not settling old scores."