It’s no doubt that Favre is an instant upgrade over Tavaris Jackson or Sage Rosenfels. But what it also says about the Minnesota Vikings is that, since Daunte Culpepper, they have no idea what the hell they’re doing at the quarterback position.

The void of substantial starting quarterbacks in the league is a glaring concern in the NFL. Jay Cutler, a future franchise guy, bolted from Denver to land in Chicago, who sold the farm to get the pouty mouthed pigskin pusher. Kansas City just shelved out over $14 million to get Matt Cassel, who is coming off one, lone, good season. To put it simply, teams are paying a premium to get a franchise quarterback in the league. And there’s very good reason.Look at the following NFL betting trends for the top-7 quarterbacks in the league:

1. Philip Rivers (San Diego) – 105.5 Rating – 7-8-1 ATS

2. Chad Pennington (Miami) – 97.4 Rating – 8-8 ATS

3. Kurt Warner (Arizona) – 96.9 Rating – 9-7 ATS

4. Drew Brees (New Orleans) - 96.2 Rating – 10-5-1 ATS

5. Peyton Manning (Indianapolis) - 95.0 – 7-9 ATS

6. Aaron Rodgers (Green Bay) – 93.8 Rating – 7-8-1 ATS

7. Matt Schaub (Houston) – 91.4 Rating – 9-7 ATS

What do you notice? Three of them averaged wins against the oddsmakers. One of them was EVEN. The other three were just one win away from posting above average ratings against the oddsmakers.

What else do you notice? None of these teams are complete. You can make arguments against all of these teams that they didn’t deserve to do well (San Diego especially). A quarterback can vastly turn the tide in any NFL matchup, especially when a handicap is involved.

Now consider this: Minnesota was a lowly 6-10 ATS and their quarterback, Gus Frerotte, averaged just a 73.7 rating over 11 games. Not the most convincing stats in the world, right? With the best running-game, a stalwart front-seven and Bernarnd Berrian wasting away at receiver, the Vikings are looking to strike gold by signing Favre, the last great quarterback out there left.

Brad Childress blew his load too early by going after Sage Rosenfels in the first week of free-agency. Nobody was kicking themselves more than Childress after he realized that Jay Cutler was actually available.



betme.com

okay somb... now that cutler is in the house of payton... will favre, once and for all, be a viking? His friends & family think so...

You?

I do think he'll be a Viking next year.

Oh, and what does ATS stand for?

I hope he does come back, the NFL has been really boring for me these past couple of years and 4 Favre vs. Chicago/GB games should at least be interesting.

ATS = Against the Spread. I commend you for your obvious lack of problem gambling tendencies.

no i dont think so...especially if the vikes hold to their 1 week deadline...

that being said, as much as i think having a great qb is key to winning a SB a great line both on the O and D are the most important

if you look at the top 10 passing teams in the nfl (saints, cards, broncos, texans, colts, eagles, chargers, packers, cowboys and dolphins) only 4 made the playoffs

As a Bears fan, I'm happy if Favre plays for Minnesota this year because he'll run out of steam by Turkey Day and the Bears will win the division. I know he'll provide the usual bevy of SportsCenter highlights, but as of this offseason I am officially tired of the annual Favre routine of not making a decision until well after the team he plays for has drafted, traded, acquired, practiced and prepared as if he won't be there, and then he decides to play just in time to skip almost all the pre-season activities almost every other player goes through, just in time to participate in the fun part of playing on Sundays without doing much of the other work. He's as much a selfish drama queen as he is a great player, and he can't sustain the greatness long enough to lead a team into January. The Jets did the right thing to release him and draft Sanchez - even if it wasn't a particularly strong QB draft and taking a QB #1 is a proven long-shot to become the future of a franchise, bringing Favre back would be a no-shot. I can't wait to see the Bears beat up on Favre in a purple jersey.

Very ironic that you'd say this because I got way in over my head playing poker and had to quit completely over a year ago.

Man, I thought Favre ruined his legacy a few seasons ago when he had that "I don't know if I want the ball" interview on ESPN. Every post-season since that interview has been about whether or not he's going to retire/unretire etc.

Just fuck off, I say. The guy's been a petulant baby for far too long and if the Vikings are considering him they should ask the Jets how that turned out for them...

I also hope he comes back. Those games would definitely be fun to watch. The Jets started 8-3 before their collapse, he even had a 6 TD game last season.

Funny how you left Jay Cutler last year off these ATS stats posted.

There is so much wrong about the top post I don't know where to start. Please read 'The Blind Side' by Michael Lewis, specifically the chapter on Bill Walsh and how the West Coast Offense minimizes the variance of QB play if playcalling, WR, and Offensive Lines do well. Then keep in mind that not only do the Vikings run the West Coast Offense, but a version of it in which they want to run 55-60% of the time.

The ATS stuff is pretty meaningless and completely ignores defense and a ton of variable to have any sort of validity. Brett Favre has a healing biceps forcing throws and and is going to be avoiding hits with a weak pass blocking offensive line. Also bear in mind his lack of mobility at this point in his career. I fail to see how he would be an improvement over Tarvaris Jackson or Sage Rosenfels. Tarvaris Jackson did not lose that playoff game last year, the Eagles blitzing schemes eventually got the best of the Vikings's weaknesses in pass blocking situations.

Games are usually not won or lost by the quarterback as ESPN tries to hype so they can sell superstars in this game. It's a lot less glamorous as it usually comes down to whose offensive line is beating whose defensive line and vice versa. The fact that the Vikings went 10-6 last year without great quarterback is proof of it. Jay Cutler going 8-8 last year was proof of it. The Bears getting to the Superbowl with Rex Grossman was proof of it. The Steelers this decade are proof of it. I could go on forever...



Sigh, but I know he's going to be a Viking, playing hurt and weak to ensure Peyton Manning never breaks his consecutive starts streak. I hated the Percy Harvin pick at first, but if the hype artists are telling the truth he's apparently the missing link to making this offense explosive regardless of who's behind center.

Favre sucks in the dome and is a terrible turf player. I hope he goes to the Vikings so that they can have another shitty, disappointing year at the QB position.

No deadline.

Favre's people leak stories to Mortensen and Werder at ESPN. The Vikings haven't given them anything. The Vikings have denied giving this deadline and I believe them. Mainly because if he had the surgery he'd need 4-6 minimum till he could throw. Giving a week deadline is just non-sensical. That and Favre is just the worst when it comes to vanity and staying in the headlines.

If Favre was two years younger this would be great for the Vikings. But, I'll tell you: I thought about this and it's really not about Favre at all when you think about it. The acquisition of Favre, if he can be a sage game manager, could open up the game for Peterson.

With that said, I see Favre going into that turf one too many times by mid-year and gimping around at about 75%.

Peterson's problem right now is that he's completely useless in passing situations. He is horrible at picking up blitzes and just general blocking technique. Yes he's too good for that to matter. But the problem from a game theory standpoint for the Vikings is that when he's in, the defense knows they're running the ball. They are actually a far more unpredictable and sometimes more dangerous offense when Chester Taylor is in. He very quietly carried 4.0 yds/carry last season and 5.4 in 07 because defenses would guess pass when AD was on the sidelines.

If the Vikings are going to have a game manager, that means someone who doesn't throw interceptions. Of Favre, Rosenfels, and Jackson, Jackson is the best of those three and Favre with his arm concerns is by far the worst. In a West-Coast offense, most decisions are made before the snap. And as I've said for years now, the key to a successful West-Coast offense after a good offensive line and a good play-caller is a play-making receiver. That DAMN well better be Percy Harvin if I'm ever going to forgive the Vikes for passing on Michael Oher with that 22nd pick.

The main problems the Vikings really need to fix are the play calling and their offensive line in pass blocking situations (looking your way Bryant 'On His Ass' McKinnie). The play-calling started improving and became more unpredictable in the last 1/2 of the season in 08. I hope Childress continues to get better.

Ah, shit. In that case, ignore my previous information and consider ATS to stand for "Against the Sun," the exciting sequel to Bob Seger's "Against the Wind."

Except for that Super Bowl MVP award.

enough to make mike ditka want to coach again


putting aside your attempt to inject logic into the discussion we're left with the top passer-rated QBs in the league going 57-52-3 against the spread - a completely cherry-picked stat that doesn't even impress on its own terms

deleted

OTM. What was I thinking? Favre is probably the worst game manager there is.

Too bad the Vikes didn't get Cutler. Damn, they'd be contenders for the next decade.

The highlight we see from that Super Bowl is always Favre running around like a retard with his braces and 8 year-old boy hair cut, but Desmond Howard won the Super Bowl MVP in '97.

I don't think it would have worked. Either you can work in a West Coast System and in nothing else. That's why Jeff Garcia worked well San Francisco (Mariucci), but then was successful in Philly and Tampa where they also run West Coast Offenses. I think the Vikings this year would have been a better fit for him, but Oakland came calling because the system fits. The reason why he's always let go, even though he's usually productive, is because most coaches have the attitude that he's a replaceable component of the offense.

Mike Holmgren is also a branch from the Walsh tree. When he left Green Bay, he took Matt Hasselbeck with him who was seemingly set to be a career backup QB. But since he already knew Holmgren's system and Holmgren gave him plenty of targets, he became a star.

If Favre plays, the Vikings fit because he knows the offense. The Jets weren't a great fit because of this.

The Broncos don't run a Walsh offense. If Cutler came to Minnesota, it would have been awfully slow going and there would have been many fights between Cutler and the coaching staff.

Nice thread you worthless faggot.

fucc I knew that too

Well duh. If Favre had won the MVP, he would have retired as a Raider.

Thread over.



Seriously, please? I'm sick of this bedwetter and if the Vikings go anywhere this year he'll get all the credit. Talking about this prick is really annoying.

10 days later and this is what you come up w/?

not sure how credible this is

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/205795-...innesota-viking

but he says an nbc affiliate is the source

Great, an incentive-laden deal. Even more motivation to keep that starting streak going after that biceps injury reaggravates.

At least the Vikings are used to QBs who throw lots of picks.

Do you think Favre will "get his roll on" after TD passes as well?

Favre shot a Sears commercial in Schaumburg poking fun at his indecisiveness.

This guy is just the worst.

he's allowed to do what he wants. it's the media and teams like the minnesota vikings that are enabling him. i think all the frustration with favre is misdirected.

^^^That's how I feel. Sears is gonna pay him a buttload of money to make fun of himself? Why not take it. The NFL and the Vikes are going to let him waffle as to his playing status? Why wouldn't he take advantage of that for as long as he can.

Because he should just sign and stop making a ridiculous 'will he/won't he' storyline out of himself every summer. We all know he'll eventually play. He keeps saying his decision is coming soon, then makes up a stupid reason not to again and again. I certainly wouldn't mind him doing this commercial if he wasn't supposed to be doing his workouts to make a final decision by Friday when training camps get started. Now I'm wondering if he signed a clause in the Sears contract not to make a final decision for a couple weeks so his indecisiveness can stay in the news a little while longer and make the ad relevance last.

I'm trying to keep an open mind about him and ignore the obvious concerns with his arm, inability to take hits, forcing interceptions, the fact that the Vikings have 2 quarterbacks who are probably more reliable on the roster, and the fact that they play in a brand of West Coast System where a quarterback isn't all that important to begin with and only needs to throw 40% of the time. But in the meantime this guy's vanity is just excruciating.

i think you're being presumptuous to assume it's a vanity thing. first of all, it's the media that covers it and makes a story out of it. not favre. favre isn't even on twitter. he probably can't even write. this would not be a story if the vikings just said, "we're out." also, i'm getting the feeling from what's come out most recently (stars texting him to convince him, the story about being worried about the media's reaction if he comes back and sucks) that there's a good chance he's just gonna quit. but i definitely don't think he's deliberately stringing everyone along to extract as much publicity as possible.

and rosenfels is decent, but jackson is just a bad qb. terrible accuracy and decision making. did you see that first round game last year? baffling decision by childress to not use gus.

Of course I saw him in the playoffs, for the most part he did fine until the second half. The problem was the offensive line didn't have an answer for Jim Johnson's blitz packages and they were in the backfield every play which makes any quarterback look awful. In addition he threw 8 TDs and 2 INTs in the last 4 games while Favre threw more picks than TDs. You have to understand that West Coast Offenses were built to minimize variance from quarterback play, and in particular Childress's offense wants to run the ball 55-60% of the time, whereas Andy Reid's throws 60% of the time. It does not really matter who is in Childress's system so long as that quarterback doesn't throw picks. And since Jackson has been better as of late about not throwing picks than Favre, I would classify him as more reliable. Rosenfels is worse about picks than Jackson, too. Personally, I would have been happiest with Jeff Garcia.

The vanity thing I'm not making up. His family has been leaking tid bits of news to Werder and Mortensen of ESPN this entire spring/summer. He made a promise to Joe Buck that he'd do his show, and under the circumstances certainly a cancellation would have been acceptable. Instead he goes on and gives his smirking maybe answers and refers to the Vikings and himself as 'we'. Then his family leaked it to the press that they booked a block of rooms in a Green Bay motel for November 1 when the Vikings play the Packers. Then his family leaks to ESPN that Brad Childress gave him an unrealistic deadline to make his decision which Childress and later Favre denied ever happened. Then it was leaked that he went through with the surgery when he previously said that if he needed surgery the answer would just be no.

You're absolutely right that the Vikings are pissing me off as well by not telling him to fuck himself. But even though they went 10-6 last year, they're having trouble selling out the Metrodome and convincing the state legislature that a new outdoor stadium is a good idea. Compound that fact with the economy and the Vikings know that they'll have trouble convincing Minnesota to pay money to see them without a marquee quarterback. So while they've let me down too, it's business.

Don't really give a shit. Have always liked Farve as a dude and as a ball player.

But seriously, FUCK.

This is why sportcenter is dead. This is why 99% of all sports media coverage sucks a giant dick. Between this horseshit and the Michael Vick debacle, espn has become fucking tiger beat magazine. It isn't even football season yet, and we get this dwelling on polarizing personalities shit and the TO reality show, and none of these old hype-mongers are going to mean shit this year compared to the young, still in their prime, still valuable dudes whos teams will actually win. Fuck this noise.

yeah, it is pretty lame, but you can just not pay attention to it. the vick debate is at least a little interesting because there's so much ambiguity. it's also a dead-zone for american sports, as baseball is the only other thing going on and baseball sucks. so any half-interesting story is going to get twice as much air-time. sportscenter has been trash for awhile though if you ask me. all style and no substance, and they give no respect to hockey, arguably the most entertaining popular sport. fast, physical, minimal stops in play, breathtaking displays of skill, most team-oriented atheletes - it's got it all! but if i want to watch sports news on tv i always stick to the sport-specific channels like nfl network, nbatv, etc. espn's website is much more valuable now than sportscenter.

that's an interesting point about the family leaking news bits. i still contend though that it's more the media's fault for blowing it up. it's their choice to report it and your choice to read about it. favre's just doin what he's doin. and yes he was atrocious in the second half of the season, but that was allegedly due to the shoulder problems. with the vikes he'll be indoor half the time anyway. and with regard to jackson, it doesn't matter what system you're in if you throws balls into the ground or behind receivers, which are the images i most associate with him.
but i agree that garcia is definitely a better option than him or 'fels, though i think Favre could still get it done.

I'm with you every step of the way minus the "baseball sucks." Not even going to argue there, as that argument's tired and unwinnable from either side.

I'm sure I'd be a big fan if the Pirates weren't about to set a record for futility. But as a casual observer I'm turned off by the speed of the game, the relative lack of athleticism, and the absence of a salary cap.

I feel I've done a decent job not getting too wound up about it this year. If I was really following it, this thread would 12 pages long by now. That piece on him doing a Sears commerial just really pissed me off because he said he'd make a decision by last Friday, then pushed back to this Friday. Now if that commercial runs, I'm assuming Sears is going to at least suggest that he keep waiting to decide for a couple weeks. I just want to know who the freaking quarterback of my team is going to be.

two words: favre tower

So Favre's done. I had a feeling he wouldn't coming back.




...I love you Brett...

Kind of sad about this too. Those Bears/Vikes games would have been a lot of fun. Same goes for the Vikes/GB games.

Yay!

announcement comes mere hours after filming that sears commercial, what a coincidence

Just long enough to shake Vikings players up a bit. Thanks, Brett- ya dick.

Report: Favre to Vikings isn't quite dead yet

Today - 10:10 AM ET
FOXsports.com's Jay Glazer says he's "positively convinced" that Brett Favre will soon have talks with Vikings about joining them for this season after all.

SI's Peter King seconds this feeling to a degree, saying if the team struggles at quarterback they'll call Favre. It's pretty interesting stuff considering this story has been dead for two weeks now and both the coach and the owner said they closed the book on Favre. Glazer even has a Vikings player saying "I'm telling you it's already done." Sage Rosenfels and Tarvaris Jackson, here we go again.

I saw that this morning, and man I was hoping no one would bump this godforsaken thread.

EDIT: Although this would make some sense with what he was saying. If he can't make it through a 16 game season, why not an 6-8 game season? Again, this guy is the just the worst.

reminds me of michael jordan the first (partial) year of his comeback when he thought he could use the end of the regular season as a warmup for the playoffs

which reminds me how fucking good anfernee hardaway once was. but i digress

apparently its being reported its a done deal...10-12M