The Twins need help in the middle infield and maybe a cheap but effective starting pitcher. Most importantly they need a Joe Mauer extension so I can win a $100 bet I made a year and a half ago. As long as they get that, in addition to a healthy Kevin Slowey and Justin Morneau I'll consider a decent off-season.

151 days until Opening Day.

Ted Lilly had arthroscopic surgery on his left shoulder today, and the Cubs expect to have him back in their rotation "within the month of April," according to MLB.com's Carrie Muskat. Might the Cubbies look for a little extra rotation insurance this offseason?

I'll take a day or two off, then get excited about the hot stove league. Particularly what appears to be the upcoming onslaught of non-tendered arbitration-eligible players. I suspect some mid-low level FAs are goign to try to sign quickly to avoid being out there without a job when all those players are let go. Should be interesting.

I figured you'd say as much. While I enjoy the playoffs when the Twins are out, I also can't wait for them to end to start the rumor milling. I think the type A free agents are probably going to panic sign for lower numbers than expected, but I think there will definitely be wiggle room for the lower grade free agents. Good for Orlando Cabrera for getting the no arbitration clause in his 1-year deal last year.


I wonder what the market for Carl Pavano is going to be like.

I think the two biggest issues will be (1) whether the Yankees give everyone the big middle finger and sign both Lackey and Holliday (or Bay); and (2) whether some of the mid-low market teams are able to take advantage of lower FA prices and get some decent players at below-market rates, or whether some of those guys will be happy to sit the bench in NY, Boston, etc., in hopes of winning a WS. Some smart FA signings could really boost the chances to compete for some teams that seem far away from competing right now.

Or Holliday.

At the end of the day, I can talk most intelligently about the Red Sox - so here is my take.

They have a few needs, some more immediate than others and there are a number of potential ways to fill these needs (no shit). Theo has been steadfast for 7 years about putting together a 95 win team (and has accomplished that 6 out of 7 years). From my perspective, the major needs are LF, 1B/3B, DH, SS. I'll address the first two quickly and if anyone gives a shit about the Sox maybe add some more.

1) LF
We currently don't have one. They will talk with Bay a lot, and then they will look closely at Holliday as well. The issue is, they have a young guy Reddick about 18 months away from taking a crack at the position so they don't "need" to fill long term. In addition to these two guys, there is always the trade option. One being a trade for Carlos Beltran - finish off his contract, move Ellsbury to left and have Reddick waiting in the wings.

I rather have Holliday over Bay, defensively he projects to be a big upgrade which puts his overall value north of JB. It also allows the Red Sox to grab a sandwich pick in the draft.

2) 1B/3B
Mike Lowell is a very bad defense 3rd basemen and can't hit out of fenway. His splits are downright ugly - with a slugging percentage below .300 on the road. If he stays, he needs to play significantly fewer games against good match ups and at home. So where do we go?

Trade for Adrian Gonzalez, Sign Chone Figgins or Adrian Beltre, trade for Prince Fielder, etc. I like the Figgins and Beltre options, as I think both are underrated. Figgins had a career year this year and will likely regress - but even still, he would be worth 12-15M dollars in value. Anyway you slice it, we should see a major upgrade with an addition of a 3rd basemen or 1st basemen (as Youks will slide accordingly).


My guy is Theo will be smart, stay out of a bidding war against the Yanks and make some smart moves. Probably involving players that are not listed in this post.

To bad Lars Anderson had a tough year at AA... but I took some time and compared it to Hanley Ramirez stats in his second year at AA and they are remarkably similar. Just need to remember he should be a junior in college and has plenty of time to develop

Jon Garland, Chad Tracy, JJ Putz have all been declined on their options. Daniel Cabrera has been outrighted. This is looking like the start of quite the buyer's market in the free agent world like last year. Good for Bobby Abreu getting a deal done today.

Yep, here we go. Will be interesting to see if the Abreu deal is for more than the $16M they were talking about a week or so ago. Heyman is reporting the second year is a vesting option. I'm sure he wanted no part of sitting around while all the other jobs got eaten up like last year. Plus, the Angels seem like a good fit for him.

JJ Putz also declined, which is not much of a surprise. Jenks is rumored to be headed towards FA, too.

Teahen to White Sox. Big deal.

The Red Sox acquired outfielder Jeremy Hermida from the Florida Marlins for Triple-A left-hander Hunter Jones and a left-hander from Boston's Double-A affiliate and Jose Alvarez according to a major-league source.


I like this move, wasn't long ago (2007) when Hermida was the Marlins #1 prospect. He has a great walk rate, albeit some struggling power numbers (which may have to do with injury). His splits are platoon favorable and with an expected crazy market for the LF position - I like how Theo went out and got a valuable 4th before the bidding started to drive his value up as well.

Only 25, he could certainly have a Nick Swisher type of break out season. He was highly touted by both statheads and scouts a like...

Yep, that's a nice move.

Far be it from me to second guess the Theo Epstein brain trust and I love Hermida, but is this really a good fit for him as a 4th OF? He's not much of a defensive replacement and if you're trying to help a 25 year old reach his potential, plate appearances off the bench and getting starts off right handed pitching isn't the best way to go about it. I'm wondering if they have plans for him in Pawtucket....

I think that it is a 4th OF option - not one that is set in stone to happen. Hell, at this point he is the starting LFer until they land on someone else. Worst case scenario if they don't sign an every day left fielder is to think about platooning him there full time.

Anyway, low risk move with a potential nice reward. Here is Theo on the deal (from BP)



They make these kind of deals all the time - and have since 2003.

I think he's one or more of these: (a) leverage in discussions with Bay, (b ) starting LF if Bay wants the world, or (c ) a trade piece. Worst-case, they re-sign Bay and he ends up on the bench or in AAA until Papi or Lowell or Drew get hurt or suck, and they find regular ABs for him.

That would be odd if the Red Sox don't get Holliday or Bay and they have an entirely left-handed outfield in Fenway park.

HOLY SHIT

Hardy for Carlos Gomez is already a done deal?!


EDIT:


The Twins got stronger defensively at SS with a right-handed bat that's capable of hitting 20+ HR and slugging over .450. I do feel that the Twins just wasted everyone's time letting Carlos Gomez get in 2 years of development time but not reaping any of the rewards aside from his defense. With now Span presumably playing CF and Delmon Young going full time in LF, this makes their formerly elite outfield range below average.

Sounds like a good move to me. The Twins can afford to sacrifice some defense for a bit more power. They could make another move to shore up their outfield before the offseason is over.

Re: the thrilling White Sox/Royals trade, looks like the Royals are sending cash too. If it's less than $1.5 million, the deal is still pretty confusing. If it's more, I merely dislike instead of hate it. If it's $3.5 million or more, it gets pretty close to break even.

The question becomes is Hardy worth $13M over two years? Not sure, through that lenz, he is. Also - talk about trade busts... Another one of the Santana pieces are gone. Think that there are only two left in the Twins system (Phil Humber and Deolis Guerr). Not sure how they are doing, but Humber has to be getting a bit old now.

How much are the Mets paying a 30 year starting pitcher who just underwent Tommy John Surgery?

The only team that won in the Santana trade was the Yankees and NL East. If the Yankees get him, they probably let CC go to the Dodgers (or hypothetically the Mets) and they hope that AJ Burnett can ace their way through the playoffs after Johan's Tommy John Surgery.

Yeah, it wasn't AS obvious as giving Pedro a long contract at the time, but Santana has not turned out to be a great signing. Unfortunately, the Steinbrothers let intelligence win the day in their internal power struggle, and here we are today, getting ready for a ticker-tape parade in NYC.

And just curious, where did you get that Hardy would cost $13 million? He signed for $4.65 million last year and his disasterous 2009 is probably going to deny him most of his potential for a pay raise in the next 2 years.

I saw refence to him costing $7.1M or $7.7M for 2010.

Sure, but they had a package from the Red Sox with either Lester or Ellsbury on the table. Who knows what else came across their desk

The Twins could have received a better package - but I understand that it is not fair to look back and evaluate if it was the right move then, but it certainly doesn't look like it has panned out...

And don't forget, Santana gave them everything he was supposed to and more in that first year. He almost single handedly kept that ship from sinking and was 3rd in MVP voting (he should have been second)

So all said and done - the Mets made out pretty damn good. They got a hell of a performance from Johan with a league leading 2.53 ERA in 2008 (ERA+ of 165) and he pitched more innings than any other starter in baseball. Last year, he had the injury, but still pitched very well and in baseball today - Tommy John Surgery is not always a bad thing. In turn, the Mets gave up 4 guys. Two were waived (Humber and Mulvey)and only one was even claimed (Mulvey by Arizona). One was shipped for JJ Hardy (Gomez), and the other is just posted an ERA over 5 in AA (Guerra).

I'd say that the Mets made out nicely

Theo's package was not serious, mainly just forcing the Yankees hand to pay way too much. If it was serious, a deal with either Boston or the Yankees would have gotten done much sooner. Santana was super expensive because the team that got him had to be able to sign him for the biggest starting pitcher contract in history otherwise it made the package the team was sending to the Twins good for a 1 year rental. Eventually the Yankees came to the conclusion of 'fuck this, we'll just get CC next year and not give up Hughes Melky, and/or Kennedy' and when that happened, Boston mysteriously disappeared from the running leaving nothing but Omar and his less attractive package.

And if you think paying a pitcher who relies on a changup and fastball declining in velocity $23 million while they hope his surgery went well, then I guess we just disagree.



EDIT: Mulvey essentially turned into 1.2 seasons of Jon Rauch and Gomez is 2 seasons of the best defensive CF in the game and 2 seasons of JJ Hardy, so it's not a total bust. But yes, Phil Humber sucks because his velocity never recovered from his Tommy John surgery.

Even last year Hardy was pretty valuable for his defense alone... I really don't see how the Twins don't get their money's worth.

Last point, cause I think we aren't going to catch a middle ground.


1) $27 million is just incredibly wrong, he has received and is getting:
2008: $19m
2009: $20m
2010: $21m
2011: $22.5m
2012: $24m
2013: $25.5m
2014: club option for $25m w/ a $5m dollar buy out.

The AAV is $22.9m and if you account for the fact that $5m is differed each year with a 1.25 interest (payable June 30 seven years after season in which salary was earned), it reduces the present-day value of package to $123.1M... or $20.5m

2) 2 years into the contract and he has outperformed his salary one year and underperformed his salary the second. I'll wait to see how he responds to Tommy John surgery. But plenty of teams have paid lots of dollars for empty production, (see Matt Clement). Who knows how this will end up, I'll reserve my judgement.

3)Carlos Gomez is a very good OF - especially in 2008, but he has not been the best out fielder in the league the past two years. According to UZR/150, the following guys had better years

2008:
Jayson Werth
Alex Rios
Franklin Gutierrez
Carl Craford
Cody Ross
Jacoby Ellsbury
Randy Winn

2009:
Nyjer Morgan
Ryan Sweeny
Gutierrez
Randy Winn
Carl Crawford
JD Drew
David DeJesus
Juan Rivera
Colby Rasmus
Nelson Cruz
BJ Upton
Ichiro
Raul Ibanez
Mike Cameron

That said... I think Morgan, Gutierrez and Crawford are the three best outfielders in the league by a good margin. Gomez is at the Ellsbury and Winn level - which is great, just not when your slash line is .229/.292/.346.

I don't really want to get into a debate about this trade. It is old news. But I can't agree with you that it was a complete lose lose situation for both sides. Very few pitchers have put up a year as good as Santana's was in 2008. he had an injury this past year - but he is still only 30 (not 27, but still young) and who knows what is next to come.

I realized shortly after posting that 27 million was A-Rod not Santana and I tried to correct it before you saw it. Oh well. I just don't think the variance on any starting pitcher is worth $20 million plus, which by the Twins standards would be a little les than 1/3 of their payroll. And Johan struggles with his velocity and can't separate the difference between his fastball and change up, it's going to be a disaster for the Mets. If a big market team wants to put that much risk on the line for one starting pitcher. That's fine. But you're boy Theo and his stat minions tell him not to routinely for good reason.

That, I am in absolute agreement with.

I was extremely against the Sox getting in the mix and very happy they backed out. And I do think it is not fair that a team like the Yanks, Mets, Phils, Tigers, Cubs, Angels, can spend afford to pay players serious cash, regardless of results and be ok with it. I think the rev sharing system need s MAJOR overhaul - but, that is an entirely different thread.

I will say, I am proud of Theo and crew for driving the salary down. Last year there were 5 teams with a higher payroll than them.

Lastly, I do think this is a good move for the Twins the more I think about it. Overstocked in the OF and filled a need at not a terrible price. It might not be bad for the Brew Crew either if Gomez can fine tune some of his raw skills and see his BABIP come back up to where it should be.

Brett Myers is a prick and all but there are about 20 teams who could use him. Dierkes is calling him a buy low target, but I think he'll do relatively alright despite this market.

Word around the campfire is that Gomez lacks the mental discipline to make it as a hitter, hence why the Twins traded him. He's one of the worst hitters in the big leagues, and what made him overall an average player was his defense. I guess Gardy is dead-set on having Punto somewhere in the lineup (leave him at 2nd, and deal Casilla/Perkins/some other prospect for some pitching help), so you can't have two guys hitting 9th.

Not to mention his baserunning gaff cost the Twins a win in the Yankees series. He just wore out his welcome, frustrating coaches and the manager.

If last season was a fluke for Hardy, this is a great trade. He's an excellent fielder, too.

Hendry was also asked whether middle infield was a priority this winter, and replies: "Not necessarily. I'm very happy with Ryan [Theriot]." He adds that Mike Fontenot and Aaron Miles had disappointing 2009 seasons, but that he expects them to bounce back next year.

Bounce back to what?

There was a 6 or 7 game stretch back in '08 when Fontenot was hitting, like, .330. "Little Babe Ruth" is what Len & Bob were calling him for those legendary 6 or 7 games back in '08.

I saw him go 5 for 5 once in 07.


Also, the guys named Type A free agents and the guys named Type B's are very strange. Not that it matters since no one's getting offered arbitration this year anyways.

Eh, I don't know about that. Teams that can afford it on a case-by-case basis might do it just to force a guy to stay. Like Billy Wagner, for example. Red Sox can afford to pay him, and I'm sure they'd like to depress his market enough that he would just accept their offer. Cheaper guys or guys teams really want to keep or try to force into a more economical 2-year deal might get arb offers.

He went on two good 7-game stretches in '08.

1) Between July 1 -July 10 he went 7 for 18 with 3 HR 5 RBI and 7 R with OBP of .583.

This is the Little Babe Ruth stretch that Len & Bob were probably hyperbolizing over. However, Babe Ruth had many 1-game stretches with 3 HR. In fact Mike Fontenot has never had a multi-homer game in his four seasons in the major leagues. I guess his 5'8 160 #'s earns him that moniker but in reality the power isn't really there.

2) To end the last 7 games of the season he went 10 for 21 with 0 HR 3 RBI and 2 R with OBP of .542

This is what Hendry was hoping he would continue making him the starting 2B by trading away DeRosa.

3) During the '07 season when he had his 5-hit game his 7-game stretch looked like this:

14 for 30 with 1 HR 6 RBI and 7 R with OBP of .500. 1 5-hit game, 1 3-hit game, 2 2-hit games, 2 1-hit games.

14 hits in a seven game stretch is something for somebody my size in the major leagues.

Yeah, I was exagerrating. I was mainly talking about these Miguel Tejada, Kevin Gregg types where even if they were a Type B free agent, the risk of them accepting their arb offers is too scary to teams similar to Bobby Abreu and his possible $16m last year.

See, you had your abacus and your Bill James and slide ruler out for the details -- I was just going off the cuff. This is me tapping my temple...steel trap.

Noteworthy: nobody's saying nuthin' about Aaron Miles.

Matt, what do you make of Gardenhire's comments about Punto playing 3B? He's got an infatuation with that guy that borders on LaRussa + every no-hit, scrappy middle infielder who ever played for him. That guy shouldn't be starting at any position, period, but 3B? Really? Especially when there are a few out there who would be a major upgrade offensively and defensively.

Oh fuck me! It looks like I am going to have a difficult time getting away from him. Can you imagine a bullpen tag team of Rodney and a 2009 version of Lidge?!

Wow, was Michael Bowden really on the table for Hardy? Surprised that the Brewers would rather have a weak-hitting center fielder than a #4-ish starter, considering their paucity of pitching.


Didn't Wagner have some stipulation when he was traded that would prevent the Red Sox from doing this? Can't remember now...

No. There was some talk about him wanting them to agree not to offer him arbitration, but all they agreed was to not pick up his option.

Tigers appear to be in cost-cutting mode, talking trade about Edwin Jackson and Gerald Laird, for starters.

Gardy is Gardy. He was a banjo-hitting, sure-handed middle infielder and he loves these Punto and Tolbert types because they're essentially a reflection of himself. I'm personally more ready for Danny Valencia to take over 3rd base than I am ready for the Twins to be spending money on a free agent at 3rd when they could be using that money to sign an improvement at 2nd base*, a middle of the rotation starting pitcher, or tossing it Joe Mauer's way. I also know Gardy hates letting rookies win jobs out of Spring Training because in his mind it's a recipe to watch them try to do too much and struggle. So I'd expect Punto/Tolbert at 3B until Valencia gets tired of destroying in Rochester is the likeliest scenario. But please don't sign Cabrera in the interest of making him play 2B.



*Speaking of the Tigers cutting costs and what we were talking about the other day, there's no way Polanco is getting an arb offer if they're considering dealing Jackson. So as you can imagine, my heart is set on him.

Yeah, I forgot to mention the Cabrera to 2B thing. I'd say Polanco is yours for the taking, since I believe the Tigers are looking at that Sizemore kid to take over.

Damn, even Grandy is apparently up for trading, too.

That's not even funny. You better have a link for that.

EDIT: I just saw it on ESPN.com, I think I'm gonna be sick.

I would love to hear justification of the Magglio extension now. Were they really THAT afraid of the union filing a grievance for benching a healthy Maggs that they were willing to pony up $18M for a guy who is in steep decline? Granderson is much more than a great OF and solid hitter, he's one of the best ambassadors of the sport and a great spokesperson for the team and role model for youth. He should be the face of the franchise for the next decade. I'm sure they won't move him, but to even discuss it after allowing Maggs to activate his contract extension is ludicrous.

I agree. I appreciate what they were trying to do with Magglio, and he actually picked it up a bit when he came back, but you don't "do the right thing" in that scenario if, once you get to the off-season, it has a clear affect on what you're doing for 2010. And I'd say that even if they made the playoffs this year. I was fine with doing that for Magglio for whatever reason, because I was under the assumption they'd continue to spend and it wouldn't restrict them for 2010. But if they're looking to trade multiple pieces from this team, plus sub in guys like Sizemore for Polanco (which is fine), this team is going to have a hard time competing next year.

The good news is that a bunch of contracts come off the books after 2010. But then again, that would make trading guys now for salary relief for just 1 year even more upsetting, I think.

Oh, and Ordonez still has a 2011 option that could kick in at $15M. Now that I look at his contract, it is even more ridiculous that they allowed his 2010 option to vest, because spending $18M for him in 2010 only makes sense if he plays, and if he plays, his 2011 option will vest. He needs 135 starts or 540 PAs in 2010, OR 270 starts and 1080 PAs in 2009-10 combined. In 2009, he had 123 (I think) starts (both OF and DH) and 518 PAs. So, they are likely going to have the same issue they did this year with him again. In essence, putting off a possible union fight until 2010 instead of 2009. if he starts and plays as much as he did in 2008, this option will vest. Oy.