This is one of the few things I miss about living in Florida. Although, now that I'm married with kids and a job, it was next to impossible to get down there from Tallahassee to see a game (and even moreso when you add in the chances of a rainout). I went to college in Lakeland, so I pretty much spent March at Joker Marchant stadium. A high school buddy of mine would drive down from Georgia for spring break and we'd hit like 10 games in 7 days. I used to plan out all the day/night games we could hit as we went up and down I-4. Back then, what it cost for week's worth of games and gas is probably less than I pay to take my family to see a shitty Reds game once a year.

Those were good times.

I don't know how the Cubs will do this year. All I know is they have too many dumb-asses at key positions (Zambrano, Sorry-ano) for me to exude confidence.

I still like Lilly though.

I'm thinking he Cubs will suck too, but really, what the hell do you know about baseball anyway?

I don't see any team in the NL Central running away with the division like the Cardinals did last year. Without Ben Sheets, the Brewers are going to finish worse than they did last year, and Dusty's Reds will be fighting with the Pirates for last place bragging rights. If Carlos doesn't have a mid-season meltdown, the Cubs could be right in the thick of the race come September.

The Cardinals stayed about the same, the Brewers (who didn't have Sheets last year either) got somewhat better, and the Cubs stayed about the same or got slightly worse. The Cubs definitely have a shot but it's the Cards' division to lose.


Thought this was interesting - is Zambrano dropping his best pitch? Can any Cubs fans who follow the team say if this fits with their observations and impressions or not?

I felt the Cubs got slightly better. The overall depth of the team is stronger to resist key injuries this year which was their biggest problem last year.
Both Soto and Z-man lost a lot of pounds and came into camp in better shape. That's what I'm hanging my hope on.

Lower expectations might be good for them this year. Keep in mind, this is a Cub fan talking.
They were expected to win their division in 85, 90, 99, 04, and again last year, with the biggest expectations coming in '04 and '09.

The years they did get in the playoffs not much was expected, except in '08, but certainly not at the level of 97-wins.

Wins by year:

1983 - 71
1984 - 96 - Lost NLCS
1985 - 77

1988 - 77
1989 - 93 - Lost NLCS
1990 - 77

1997 - 68
1998 - 90 - Lost LDS
1999 - 67

2002 - 67
2003 - 88 - Lost NLCS
2004 - 89

2007 - 85 - Lost LDS
2008 - 97 - Lost LDS
2009 - 83

They haven't had a team consistently have a winning percentage year in/year out since the late 60's/early 70's. An era that had no playoff entrances.

What am I trying to say? They have a team that can compete in the division and playoffs are not out of the question.
Hope springs eternal for this Cubs fan.

Interesting article. The article suggests it may be due to arm strain, which some of the responders seem to confirm. If this is the case it could be beneficial to drop the pitch.

Cutter’s and arm strain?

The general understanding is that pitches thrown with a supinated (turning a doorknob counter clockwise for a RH) arm action are generally more stressful on the elbow than a pronated pitch because the stress of accelerating and decelerating the arm is being focused mainly on the ligaments instead of allowing the arm to bend naturally and absorb some of the force. Mariano Rivera has pristine mechanics, and despite this and limited innings as a reliever he still has a history of elbow issues due to how often he throws the cutter.


From personal experience pitching through college and semi-pro ball, I would say that the cutter is undoubtedly more stressful on your elbow and shoulder than any other type of fastball. While not as stressful on the elbow as the slider, it is close, and I actually found that the motion for the cutter is more stressful on the shoulder than the slider. If Zambrano is having lingering problems with his arm, it very well could have something to do with the cutter.

Taking that pitch out of his repetoire, though, would likely affect his success as a pitcher. Is this a Catch-22?

The Cubs definitely have a shot this year. I guess the main thing that makes me conservative about them is the starting rotation... with Lilly injured, Wells due for some regression, and Gorzelanny/Silva being Gorzelanny/Silva, they could really feel Harden's absence.

The Cubs got slightly older, anyway.

Soriano's already whimpering about his knee & moaning about wanting to lead off - he peaked years back & won't be anything more than a free-swinging, awful outfielder for years to come. He's a DH in the NL.

Zambrano's a head case - he won't ever win more than 12 or 13 games and his trips to the DL last year are an omen: he's sure to miss time again this year because he refuses to stay in shape.

Lee & Ramirez are terrific but they're not getting any younger, either - this is a contract year for Lee so maybe we can expect the slight upticks in production that accompany contract years. A relatively healthy season from Ramirez would help the club, no doubt.

The press is fawning all over this Rudy Jaramillo fella & his resume boasts some pretty nice stories (DeRosa, Bradley, Byrd, etc) - he claims he can 'fix' Fukudome. We'll see about that.

Chicago will finish in 2nd place - behind the Cards by 10-15 games - and miss the playoffs again.

So what you're saying is they are going to back into the playoffs through the wildcard, get hotter than shit in the playoffs, and win the World Series? That's what I'm talking about. I like your optimism.

76 wins at best.

Last night on the Major League Baseball Network, I watched an old Cubs game, one in which both teams combined to score 45 runs. Mike Schmidt had 4 home runs & my favorite player of that era, Dave Kingman had 3. Other than Kingman & Bill Buckner, the Cubs had a pretty stinky team back then. Ah, the memories of getting bleacher tickets for $2!

I watched quite a bit of that game, too. I think I saw it on Saturday night. Hard to believe that Phillies team would win the WS the next year.

I saw it Saturday night too, just about everybody was sporting facial hair back then!

Here's a bit of good news for Cubs fans. Buster Olney ranks the teams' strength of schedule for the first 40 or so games, and the Cubs have the easiest schedule in the NL (to start):

Chicago Cubs
Home/away: 19 of their first 38 games are at home.
Games against teams that finished over .500 in 2009: Six -- that's right, just six -- of their first 38 games.
Meat-grinder stuff: The Cubs open the season with three games against the Braves, and they don't play another team that had a record over .500 in 2009 until May 10. The Cubs do not see the Cardinals until May 28 -- and they don't play their first game in St. Louis until Aug. 13. That is not a misprint.


Of course, the half-empty version of this is it sets up nicely for a great start and inevitable slide down...

Who is this Juan Yasser Serrano guy?

He used to play for the Indians farm team.

Suppose we now know why the M's were OK with tucking a $9m tip in Silva's shirt pocket to get him out of Seattle , eh?



...and his year isn't getting any better.

I have a bet with a co-worker that Carlos Silva won't get 15-wins this year.
Easy money.

15 wins?! Your co-worker just move here from Peru or something? Is his name Paddington?

More interesting bet is when Silva gets cut. I guess they'll keep him because they have to out of spring training, but really, they should just cut him now and save themselves a few wasted appearances/starts.

Why, who is he blocking? He has a decent chance of being a mediocre-but-useful swingman.

A more interesting pre-season prediction might be how many PAs Starlin Castro is going to get this season.

A lot of over hype from the brass are leading fans to think Starlin will be plugged in at short or second at some point this season.
I think he's got a season or two before he's a contributor.

How many shortstops make their debut at their age 20 season?

Very few. Derek Jeter, no. Hanley Ramirez, no. Troy Tulowitzki, no. Miguel Tejada, no. Nomar Garciaparra, no. Omar Vizquel, no. Jimmy Rollins, no. Shawon Dunston, no. Ernie Banks, no. Ozzio Smith, no. Phil Rizzuto, no.

Jose Reyes, yes. Alex Rodriguez, yes. Cal Ripken, yes.

I'll say Starlin gets less than 100 PAs this season.

Of course, there is that chance that he may be older than 20.

He does? I guess it depends on what you call mediocre-to-useful. He is a "professional," though, in the Livan Hernandez sense. I'm not sure how useful that is when it brings with it a 5+ ERA. Although, in small doses and strictly as a mop-up guy, I guess he could save the good arms on that team. If they give him any starts, it would be a waste and probably hurt the bullpen more than help the rotation.


Bottom line for me is, if he's going to be a long innings guy pitching in blowouts and such, I'd rather let a young guy work in that kind of low-pressure situation than Silva. But they are paying a ton of money for him, so....

Which young guy though? The Cubs don't seem that deep in pitching right now. Silva has an OK shot at a sub-5 ERA, especially if he pitches a lot of relief. That kind of player is useful, just like Livan. Silva has a career 1.71 BB/9. If he can get anywhere near that again, he'll be a useful (if overpaid and uninsipring) player.

And just for PR value, if Silva turns in a useful half-season for them, the Bradley debacle is easier for the club to sell to the fans.

Latest rumors have the Cubs looking at trading for Jason Frasor.
They need to do something to replace Guzman, the bullpen is pretty thin as it even before his injury.
Heath Bell's name was mentioned at a higher cost.

Saw this linked in Neyer's blog as T-shirt of the Week:

He seems like a classic June 1 call-up, so as to preserve his service time serfdom for an extra year, type of player. This has become the trend since Longoria as this both keeps the young player motivated to continue raking in AAA and appreciative of their roster spot instead of entitled winning the job after a good March. It seems like the logical thing to do, but who knows what Hendry has in mind.

Wait, why would he play in the majors at all this year? He's a 20-year-old who OPS'd .743 in 31 games in AA.

Hype machine is ridiculous with this kid. June 1, 2011 sounds good to me.

You can't really hold OPS against a hitter who makes no pretenses of being a power hitter like this. This is a type of hitter who's supposed to not strike out and put the ball in play a lot to let things happen. So far, he's done exactly that at every level. He's not going to hit extra base hits, so his slugging is always going to be weak. If he can continue to handle AAA like he did AA, I wouldn't bet against 6/1/10 or shortly thereafter.

Yeah, but his OBP isn't even especially good. And he's hardly even proven that ability at AA yet, with just 31 games there.

I just ran his A+ numbers (his largest sample size at one level) through the minor league equivalency calculator and this is the half-season it spit out:

366 AB
.241/.275/.309
15 BB / 46 K
17 SB / 13 CS

Sure, maybe two months of hot hitting in AAA perks that projection up a bit, but that is a baaad major leaguer.

Couldn't even make it out of the 2nd inning today, the half-wit.

IP H R ER BB SO HR PC-ST ERA
C Zambrano 1.1 6 8 8 2 1 2 49-28 54.00

"I guarantee this and I guarantee that"...his fat ass should've been packaged up & dealt years ago when he had value.

Stuck in meetings all afternoon & kept surreptitiously checking my Droid for the score & couldn't believe it...I suppose there's some poetry in Heyward ushering in The New at fat ass's expense.

edit: Whoo, this J. Heyward kid sounds tuff...oh, and Zambrano had a throwing error to stir into his dazzling line, as well.

What a demoralizing game.

Lilly should be the number one starter, that's for sure. Carlos always starts out slow, so I expect him to make a rebound in the warmer weather. After Zambrano & Lilly I don't even know who the starters are.

really shitty call today on that byrd line drive, but we probably would have lost regardless. disappointing way to start the season, but whatever.

it's super early, but jason heyward looks legit. he was flat out crushing the ball and he has good plate discipline already.

Great way to start the season, lol.

had this game been at home i wonder if the handful of idiots in attendance would've littered wrigley with garbage.

If so, it would be well deserved. Cute Cubbiedom needs to be exorcised.

While I agree, the playing field is the nicest thing they have up there. I don't know why the fans often feel the need to make it look like the rest of the stadium.

It was 85 in Atlanta

No reason to worry about Zambrano yet. He'll get better once he warms up.
Here's his career splits:

Split ERA WHIP
April/March 4.34 1.422
May 2.60 1.15
June 3.51 1.332
July 2.86 1.231
August 4.47 1.414
Sept/Oct 3.72 1.282

Doggone it.

Dempster pitched nicely (9 Ks) but there ain't much exciting about this Cubs line-up, is there? Tommy Hanson's going to embarass them tonight, sealing the 3-game sweep and denting their confidence heading to Cincy where they'll lose 2-of-3 to Dusty. They'll open Wrigley with a 1-5 record and promptly lose 2 more to the dangerous Brewers. Houston may provide some relief but Oswalt will get his routine W following that series...and so on.

I don't like this team very much.

On the upside, the Team Marketing Report shared the news this morning that the Chicago Cubs have the highest average ticket price in Major League Baseball at a $52.56 avg clip vs. the league avg at $26.74.

Wherefore art thou, Jaramillo!?

and I thought you were a Randy Wells fan.

and what about this Colvin guy, making Soriano look like Wally Pipp.
There are certainly likable parts to this team.

I like Wells just fine, sure - in fact, I felt terribly for the kid last years when he was pitching really, really well but his team either couldn't score or blew leads to sabotage his success. And Wells pitched nicely again last night.

Grabow's the new LaToya Hawkins.

Alfonso Soriano just caught a fly ball off the bat of Brewer lead-off hitter Rickie Weeks.

E7 (again).

They've got to get rid off this guy somehow...holy fuck, is he just an awful baseball player these days.

Worst Chicago contract ever? Brian Cox? Ben Wallace? Todd Hundley? Albert Belle?

Wooooooooooooo!

Still $90 million to go on that contract. He's not going anywhere.


Do you mean because of his personality and stuff? Because he put up one good year and one amazing year while in Chicago.

I know, I know...I think you actually vivisected Bell's numbers on this site a year or so ago. I was just hitting keys in frustration. I'm just upset. What about you? Your squad could use him as a DH, right? Use your contacts & get Kenny talking to Hendry - let's get this done by the deadline.

Thank Jah for LaTroy Hawkins, eh?